TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067613
Played Sep 3Finished
Stepan Kalensky
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116119311911114
Filip Kubos
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeStepan Kalensky to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingStepan Kalensky above · Filip Kubos below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 86 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Stepan Kalensky at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Stepan Kalensky 15–14 Filip Kubos Filip Kubos has won 14 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:28What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kalensky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-14 in 29
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kalensky 1647 vs Kubos 1466
Kalensky
Correct
both rated, 181 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kalensky 100% vs Kubos 20%
Kalensky
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kalensky 80% vs Kubos 50%
Kalensky
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kalensky +5 · Kubos -2
Kalensky
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kalensky) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubos form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKalensky 1.73 / Kubos 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Kalensky)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13067613
Kalensky1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 74 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it97% 28 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it82% 41 of 50
Kubos2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog44% won 87 of 197
Down 0–1, comes back24% 28 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKalensky3wins
AwayKubos7wins
7 of 10 to a deciderKubos leads 7–3, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKalensky33.3%1 of 3
AwayKubos71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kalensky3Kubos7n = 10Kubos took 7 of 10
S2Kalensky3Kubos7n = 10Kubos took 7 of 10
S3Kalensky5Kubos5n = 10split evenly
S4Kalensky5Kubos4n = 9Kalensky took 5 of 9
S5Kalensky3Kubos4n = 7Kubos took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKalenskyKubosKalensky − KubosBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.346.8−4.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKalenskyKubosBasisWin rate · lifetime285 / 516 vs 366 / 71455.2%51.3%285 / 516 vs 366 / 714Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KalenskyKalensky 1.73/Kubos 2.00
Hit
What we said
56.5%
Kalensky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kalensky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 20 · 17:30S. Kalensky—7101114123F. Kubos—1112812102
LJul 5 · 20:33S. Kalensky—711114112F. Kubos—112711133
LJul 5 · 17:30S. Kalensky—69130F. Kubos—1111153
LJun 19 · 20:18S. Kalensky—811671F. Kubos—11611113
LJun 19 · 17:15S. Kalensky—810111282F. Kubos—1112810113
WJun 13 · 05:30S. Kalensky—114714113F. Kubos—711111292
LMay 10 · 15:00S. Kalensky—11117792F. Kubos—861111113
LMay 9 · 15:45S. Kalensky—1375101F. Kubos—111111123
LMay 1 · 20:14S. Kalensky—75111192F. Kubos—111188113
WMay 1 · 18:15S. Kalensky—641213113F. Kubos—1111101192
S. Kalensky10
WSep 6 · 12:31T. Bertho1.6791060S. Kalensky2.071112113LSep 6 · 11:30V. Herrmann1.9114911113S. Kalensky1.801211691LSep 6 · 11:00S. Kalensky1.8341191192T. Bertho1.83118119113LSep 6 · 10:00S. Kalensky2.25891111122J. Juppa1.57111158143LSep 5 · 16:59F. Kubos1.8011911113S. Kalensky1.91311891WSep 5 · 15:30L. Hendrych2.6391141152S. Kalensky1.44116115113LSep 5 · 14:00S. Kalensky1.731181051F. Kubos2.008111293LSep 5 · 08:59J. Juppa1.9171118113S. Kalensky1.801191671LSep 5 · 08:00S. Kalensky1.91741181J. Juppa1.8011117113WSep 5 · 06:30M. Cizek2.108550S. Kalensky1.671111113
F. Kubos10
WSep 5 · 16:59F. Kubos1.8011911113S. Kalensky1.91311891WSep 5 · 16:00F. Kubos1.801111103J. Hanacek1.915870WSep 5 · 14:30L. Hendrych1.578890F. Kubos2.251111113WSep 5 · 14:00S. Kalensky1.731181051F. Kubos2.008111293WSep 3 · 20:43F. Kubos2.50119119113M. Cizek1.5091181182LSep 3 · 19:00M. Cizek1.441011118113F. Kubos2.6312971152LSep 3 · 17:30J. Snr1.73871111113F. Kubos2.0011118572WAug 29 · 08:54T. Bertho1.9114911111F. Kubos1.8016119133LAug 29 · 07:45F. Kubos1.80111111662T. Bertho1.91581311113LAug 29 · 06:15M. Taranko1.53311114113F. Kubos2.3811771172
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