TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13006787
Played Aug 25Finished
Jan Marhol
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911118115411611
Josef Hanacek
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:12 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeJan Marhol to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Marhol above · Josef Hanacek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 87 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Jan Marhol at 62.9%
87 points played in total.
H2H Jan Marhol 5–3 Josef Hanacek Josef Hanacek has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:12What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Marhol
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Marhol
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marhol 1503 vs Hanacek 1529
Hanacek
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marhol 60% vs Hanacek 100%
Hanacek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marhol 60% vs Hanacek 80%
Hanacek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marhol +2 · Hanacek +5
Hanacek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Marhol) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hanacek form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarhol 1.57 / Hanacek 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Marhol)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #13006787
Marhol1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 39 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it71% 10 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it75% 24 of 32
Hanacek2.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 45 of 98
Down 0–1, comes back29% 15 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMarhol5wins
AwayHanacek3wins
2 of 8 to a deciderMarhol leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarhol80%4 of 5
AwayHanacek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marhol5Hanacek3n = 8Marhol took 5 of 8
S2Marhol4Hanacek4n = 8split evenly
S3Marhol6Hanacek2n = 8Marhol took 6 of 8
S4Marhol4Hanacek2n = 6Marhol took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home450%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricMarholHanacekM − HBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match39.437.2+2.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarholHanacekBasisWin rate · lifetime119 / 231 vs 215 / 40851.5%52.7%119 / 231 vs 215 / 408Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.039.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarholMarhol 1.57/Hanacek 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.9%
Marhol · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hanacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 25 · 10:30J. Marhol—91111462J. Hanacek—118511113
LAug 16 · 16:45J. Marhol—45100J. Hanacek—1111123
WAug 16 · 13:15J. Marhol—111114113J. Hanacek—1381281
WJun 19 · 21:08J. Marhol—131011113J. Hanacek—1112571
WJun 19 · 17:30J. Marhol—13711103J. Hanacek—1111871
LJun 7 · 15:30J. Marhol—1161110112J. Hanacek—811312133
WFeb 14 · 21:45J. Marhol—1111113J. Hanacek—7890
WFeb 14 · 20:30J. Marhol—11116123J. Hanacek—7611101
J. Marhol10
WSep 3 · 12:23J. Hanacek2.201011110J. Marhol1.611213133LSep 3 · 11:15J. Marhol2.00812521M. Vana1.73111011113WSep 3 · 10:15J. Marhol1.6110121112143O. Plyska2.201214910122LSep 3 · 09:15J. Marhol1.57121211982J. Hanacek2.251014711113LAug 26 · 17:00J. Marhol1.83119581P. Abraham1.8351111113LAug 26 · 16:00P. Abraham1.91114117113J. Marhol1.8061141132WAug 26 · 15:00F. Schmidtmayer2.20116551J. Marhol1.6161111113LAug 25 · 12:58F. Kubos2.101111113J. Marhol1.676870WAug 25 · 11:30J. Marhol1.671311812113O. Plyska2.10117111432WAug 25 · 09:30J. Marhol1.671111155113F. Kubos2.1099171162
J. Hanacek10
WSep 5 · 16:29J. Hanacek4.00116117113L. Hendrych1.2251141152LSep 5 · 16:00F. Kubos1.801111103J. Hanacek1.915870LSep 5 · 13:30L. Hendrych1.251111113J. Hanacek3.759690LSep 3 · 12:23J. Hanacek2.201011110J. Marhol1.611213133LSep 3 · 11:45O. Plyska1.67117111113J. Hanacek2.1041181192LSep 3 · 10:45M. Vana1.501112114113J. Hanacek2.5091471192WSep 3 · 09:15J. Marhol1.57121211982J. Hanacek2.251014711113LSep 2 · 09:03T. Bertho1.61117139113J. Hanacek2.20911111162WSep 2 · 08:00J. Hanacek2.7511116113T. Bertho1.40981161LSep 2 · 06:30M. Vana1.53121114113J. Hanacek2.381051691
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