Jan Marhol vs Josef Hanacek 2-3

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka CupMatch #13067050

Played Sep 3Finished

Jan Marhol

Home

1.57

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 2

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

12101214117911811

Josef Hanacek

Away

2.25

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:17 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%

Graded at full time

Jan Marhol to win

59.3%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

no pick shipped

How it is goingJan Marhol above · Josef Hanacek below

Set 1 · 12-10

Set 2 · 12-14

Set 3 · 11-7

Set 4 · 9-11

Set 5 · 8-11

Point 105 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Jan Marhol at 59.3%

105 points played in total.

H2H Jan Marhol 5–3 Josef Hanacek Josef Hanacek has won 3 of their 8 meetings.

Last 8 · 5–3Same sideHead to head

The pickNo pick published

Sealed 20:17

What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.57 (59%)

Marhol

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

5-3 in 8

Marhol

Wrong

gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Marhol 1474 vs Hanacek 1442

Marhol

Wrong

both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Marhol 40% vs Hanacek 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Marhol 50% vs Hanacek 40%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Marhol -2 · Hanacek -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Marhol)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Marhol form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMarhol 1.57 / Hanacek 2.25

Signal prob.59% / 41%

Edge (Marhol)+0.4pp

Setka Cup · #13067050

Marhol1.57

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite57% won 39 of 69

Up 2–0, closes it73% 11 of 15

Up 1–0, closes it73% 24 of 33

Hanacek2.25

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As underdog47% won 52 of 110

Down 0–1, comes back32% 18 of 57

Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 8 meetings

HomeMarhol5wins

AwayHanacek3wins

2 of 8 to a deciderMarhol leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeMarhol80%4 of 5

AwayHanacek66.7%2 of 3

Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Marhol5Hanacek3n = 8Marhol took 5 of 8

S2Marhol4Hanacek4n = 8split evenly

S3Marhol6Hanacek2n = 8Marhol took 6 of 8

S4Marhol4Hanacek2n = 6Marhol took 4 of 6

Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home113%

3–1Four sets, home450%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away225%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away113%

These 8 meetings

MetricMarholHanacekM − HBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match39.437.2+2.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricMarholHanacekBasisWin rate · lifetime121 / 236 vs 224 / 43051.3%52.1%121 / 236 vs 224 / 430Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.2per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Marhol

Marhol 1.57/Hanacek 2.25

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

59.3%

Marhol · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Hanacek won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record8

LAug 25 · 10:30J. Marhol—91111462J. Hanacek—118511113

LAug 16 · 16:45J. Marhol—45100J. Hanacek—1111123

WAug 16 · 13:15J. Marhol—111114113J. Hanacek—1381281

WJun 19 · 21:08J. Marhol—131011113J. Hanacek—1112571

WJun 19 · 17:30J. Marhol—13711103J. Hanacek—1111871

LJun 7 · 15:30J. Marhol—1161110112J. Hanacek—811312133

WFeb 14 · 21:45J. Marhol—1111113J. Hanacek—7890

WFeb 14 · 20:30J. Marhol—11116123J. Hanacek—7611101

J. Marhol10

WSep 3 · 12:23J. Hanacek2.201011110J. Marhol1.611213133 LSep 3 · 11:15J. Marhol2.00812521M. Vana1.73111011113 WSep 3 · 10:15J. Marhol1.6110121112143O. Plyska2.201214910122 LAug 26 · 17:00J. Marhol1.83119581P. Abraham1.8351111113 LAug 26 · 16:00P. Abraham1.91114117113J. Marhol1.8061141132 WAug 26 · 15:00F. Schmidtmayer2.20116551J. Marhol1.6161111113 LAug 25 · 12:58F. Kubos2.101111113J. Marhol1.676870 WAug 25 · 11:30J. Marhol1.671311812113O. Plyska2.10117111432 LAug 25 · 10:30J. Marhol1.5791111462J. Hanacek2.25118511113 WAug 25 · 09:30J. Marhol1.671111155113F. Kubos2.1099171162

J. Hanacek10

WSep 5 · 16:29J. Hanacek4.00116117113L. Hendrych1.2251141152 LSep 5 · 16:00F. Kubos1.801111103J. Hanacek1.915870 LSep 5 · 13:30L. Hendrych1.251111113J. Hanacek3.759690 LSep 3 · 12:23J. Hanacek2.201011110J. Marhol1.611213133 LSep 3 · 11:45O. Plyska1.67117111113J. Hanacek2.1041181192 LSep 3 · 10:45M. Vana1.501112114113J. Hanacek2.5091471192 LSep 2 · 09:03T. Bertho1.61117139113J. Hanacek2.20911111162 WSep 2 · 08:00J. Hanacek2.7511116113T. Bertho1.40981161 LSep 2 · 06:30M. Vana1.53121114113J. Hanacek2.381051691 WAug 25 · 10:30J. Marhol1.5791111462J. Hanacek2.25118511113

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