TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13060519
Played Sep 2Finished
Jakub Dufek Jnr
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119911117119––
Martin Holub
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Dufek Jnr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Dufek Jnr above · Martin Holub below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 78 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Jakub Dufek Jnr at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Dufek Jnr 27–33 Martin Holub Jakub Dufek Jnr has won 27 of their 60 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:33What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jnr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-33 in 60
Holub
Wrong
gap of 6 in 60, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1300 vs Holub 1408
Holub
Wrong
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 20% vs Holub 60%
Holub
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 20% vs Holub 60%
Holub
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr -2 · Holub -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jnr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.80 / Holub 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jnr)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13060519
Jnr1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 91 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it92% 44 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it74% 64 of 87
Holub1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog52% won 68 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back28% 17 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJnr6wins
AwayHolub4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderJnr leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr66.7%2 of 3
AwayHolub42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr3Holub7n = 10Holub took 7 of 10
S2Jnr6Holub4n = 10Jnr took 6 of 10
S3Jnr5Holub5n = 10split evenly
S4Jnr6Holub3n = 9Jnr took 6 of 9
S5Jnr2Holub1n = 3Jnr took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJnrHolubJ − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.138.10.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime239 / 465 vs 367 / 66651.4%55.1%239 / 465 vs 367 / 666Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrJnr 1.80/Holub 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 11:30J. Jnr—712761M. Holub—111011113
WAug 25 · 17:03J. Jnr—11911113M. Holub—911591
WAug 25 · 13:30J. Jnr—1011115113M. Holub—12841172
WJul 18 · 10:00J. Jnr—91111123M. Holub—1179101
WJul 17 · 09:30J. Jnr—511811113M. Holub—11411772
WJul 10 · 16:00J. Jnr—11119113M. Holub—651171
LJul 7 · 16:59J. Jnr—114681M. Holub—51111113
LJul 7 · 13:30J. Jnr—74111192M. Holub—111199113
WJul 1 · 11:00J. Jnr—101111113M. Holub—128681
LJun 29 · 12:28J. Jnr—6710M. Holub—1111113
J. Jnr10
LSep 3 · 12:58J. Seeman2.0011119113J. Jnr1.73681171LSep 3 · 12:00J. Jnr1.5791090J. Seeman2.251112113LSep 3 · 10:30J. Blazek2.501071111113J. Jnr1.5012116972LSep 3 · 10:00J. Krejcik1.611111410153J. Jnr2.20531112132LSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub2.001113113J. Jnr1.7391170WSep 2 · 11:30P. Cizek2.104680J. Jnr1.671111113WSep 2 · 11:00J. Jnr1.7311118113P. Moulis2.00971151LSep 1 · 12:38M. Melisek1.6191211113J. Jnr2.201110871LSep 1 · 11:30R. Slunecko1.6711911113J. Jnr2.10911491WSep 1 · 11:00J. Jnr2.387111211113M. Vorel1.53118101372
M. Holub10
WSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460LSep 6 · 16:00A. Akopyan2.0091111113M. Holub1.73119741WSep 6 · 15:00P. Muller2.631110761M. Holub1.4481211113WSep 6 · 13:30V. Coubal3.4012711492M. Holub1.301011811113WSep 5 · 12:40M. Holub1.53613311113A. Akopyan2.38111111642WSep 5 · 12:00L. Krutina1.80111012992M. Holub1.919121011113LSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 09:30A. Akopyan2.001211113M. Holub1.7310490WSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub2.001113113J. Jnr1.7391170WSep 2 · 12:00M. Holub2.754111311123P. Moulis1.401171113102
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