TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079262
Played Sep 5Finished
Marcel Cmil
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911511119115116
Martin Holub
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:39 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeMartin Holub to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingMarcel Cmil above · Martin Holub below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 89 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Martin Holub at 56.9%
89 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Cmil 61–74 Martin Holub Marcel Cmil has won 61 of their 135 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:39What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Holub
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
61-74 in 135
Holub
Wrong
gap of 13 in 135, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cmil 1321 vs Holub 1402
Holub
Wrong
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cmil 40% vs Holub 60%
Holub
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cmil 50% vs Holub 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cmil -1 · Holub -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Holub)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCmil 2.00 / Holub 1.73
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Holub)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13079262
Cmil2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 64 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back32% 24 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back12% 5 of 43
Holub1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 105 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it100% 52 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it76% 77 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCmil8wins
AwayHolub2wins
6 of 10 to a deciderCmil leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCmil83.3%5 of 6
AwayHolub25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cmil6Holub4n = 10Cmil took 6 of 10
S2Cmil6Holub4n = 10Cmil took 6 of 10
S3Cmil8Holub2n = 10Cmil took 8 of 10
S4Cmil4Holub5n = 9Holub took 5 of 9
S5Cmil4Holub2n = 6Cmil took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCmilHolubC − HBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match44.741.5+3.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCmilHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime365 / 675 vs 365 / 66354.1%55.1%365 / 675 vs 365 / 663Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubCmil 2.00/Holub 1.73
Miss
What we said
56.9%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cmil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 14:30M. Cmil—111167113M. Holub—47111172
WAug 24 · 20:00M. Cmil—81611113M. Holub—1114761
LAug 16 · 21:10M. Cmil—12591182M. Holub—1011118113
WAug 16 · 18:30M. Cmil—1171310113M. Holub—511111252
WJul 31 · 05:30M. Cmil—412117113M. Holub—111061192
WJul 26 · 21:04M. Cmil—11911113M. Holub—911731
LJul 26 · 17:30M. Cmil—511116122M. Holub—116811143
WJul 16 · 08:00M. Cmil—1111117123M. Holub—813911102
WJul 14 · 15:00M. Cmil—71111113M. Holub—118991
WJul 12 · 10:45M. Cmil—1112113M. Holub—91080
M. Cmil10
WSep 5 · 13:08L. Krutina1.8511119972M. Cmil1.85791111113WSep 5 · 11:30A. Akopyan2.253650M. Cmil1.571111113LSep 5 · 10:00M. Cmil1.8311811892L. Krutina1.83911911113WSep 3 · 08:34M. Cmil1.50312711113J. Vrnak2.50111011562LSep 3 · 08:00M. Cmil1.807111191L. Krutina1.9111137113WSep 3 · 06:30J. Vrnak2.50911771M. Cmil1.5011211113LSep 3 · 06:00A. Skyba2.381411611113M. Cmil1.5316811972LSep 1 · 09:14M. Cmil1.61971171M. Cervenka2.2011117113WSep 1 · 08:00M. Cmil1.731111114143D. Sabuka2.00613911122LSep 1 · 06:30M. Cervenka2.6311911133M. Cmil1.446114111
M. Holub10
WSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460LSep 6 · 16:00A. Akopyan2.0091111113M. Holub1.73119741WSep 6 · 15:00P. Muller2.631110761M. Holub1.4481211113WSep 6 · 13:30V. Coubal3.4012711492M. Holub1.301011811113WSep 5 · 12:40M. Holub1.53613311113A. Akopyan2.38111111642WSep 5 · 12:00L. Krutina1.80111012992M. Holub1.919121011113LSep 5 · 09:30A. Akopyan2.001211113M. Holub1.7310490WSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub2.001113113J. Jnr1.7391170WSep 2 · 12:00M. Holub2.754111311123P. Moulis1.401171113102WSep 2 · 10:30P. Cizek1.83111112642M. Holub1.83941411113
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