TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067114
Played Sep 3Finished
Marcel Cmil
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111113117911––
Lukas Krutina
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarcel Cmil to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMarcel Cmil above · Lukas Krutina below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 80 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Marcel Cmil at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Cmil 24–22 Lukas Krutina Lukas Krutina has won 22 of their 46 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:28What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Cmil
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-22 in 46
Cmil
Wrong
gap of 2 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cmil 1350 vs Krutina 1322
Cmil
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cmil 40% vs Krutina 60%
Krutina
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cmil 60% vs Krutina 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cmil +1 · Krutina -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cmil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cmil form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCmil 1.80 / Krutina 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Cmil)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13067114
Cmil1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 97 of 160
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it77% 65 of 85
Krutina1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog52% won 27 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back27% 8 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCmil4wins
AwayKrutina6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKrutina leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCmil80%4 of 5
AwayKrutina100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cmil5Krutina5n = 10split evenly
S2Cmil7Krutina3n = 10Cmil took 7 of 10
S3Cmil5Krutina5n = 10split evenly
S4Cmil4Krutina5n = 9Krutina took 5 of 9
S5Cmil1Krutina4n = 5Krutina took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCmilKrutinaC − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.740.8−0.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCmilKrutinaBasisWin rate · lifetime369 / 680 vs 105 / 20754.3%50.7%369 / 680 vs 105 / 207Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CmilCmil 1.80/Krutina 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Cmil · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Krutina won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 22 · 10:30M. Cmil—91171172L. Krutina—119119113
WJun 13 · 13:45M. Cmil—1111113L. Krutina—6850
WJun 8 · 06:00M. Cmil—111167113L. Krutina—88111172
LJun 4 · 08:49M. Cmil—471151L. Krutina—11116113
WJun 4 · 07:45M. Cmil—11117113L. Krutina—871171
LJun 3 · 14:30M. Cmil—9119111L. Krutina—11611133
WMay 2 · 16:54M. Cmil—11711113L. Krutina—911991
LMay 2 · 14:15M. Cmil—11711472L. Krutina—61171183
LMay 1 · 10:30M. Cmil—911611112L. Krutina—117113133
LApr 30 · 18:00M. Cmil—71511692L. Krutina—1113811113
M. Cmil10
WSep 5 · 13:08L. Krutina1.8511119972M. Cmil1.85791111113WSep 5 · 11:30A. Akopyan2.253650M. Cmil1.571111113WSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 10:00M. Cmil1.8311811892L. Krutina1.83911911113WSep 3 · 08:34M. Cmil1.50312711113J. Vrnak2.50111011562WSep 3 · 06:30J. Vrnak2.50911771M. Cmil1.5011211113LSep 3 · 06:00A. Skyba2.381411611113M. Cmil1.5316811972LSep 1 · 09:14M. Cmil1.61971171M. Cervenka2.2011117113WSep 1 · 08:00M. Cmil1.731111114143D. Sabuka2.00613911122LSep 1 · 06:30M. Cervenka2.6311911133M. Cmil1.446114111
L. Krutina10
LSep 5 · 13:08L. Krutina1.8511119972M. Cmil1.85791111113LSep 5 · 12:00L. Krutina1.80111012992M. Holub1.919121011113WSep 5 · 10:30A. Akopyan2.754890L. Krutina1.401111113WSep 5 · 10:00M. Cmil1.8311811892L. Krutina1.83911911113WSep 3 · 09:03L. Krutina2.101111610133A. Skyba1.67971112112LSep 3 · 07:00A. Skyba2.381111113L. Krutina1.535670WSep 3 · 05:30J. Vrnak3.401177101L. Krutina1.3041111123WAug 4 · 12:29L. Krutina1.441111113A. Akopyan2.636780LAug 4 · 12:00L. Krutina2.256580D. Sabuka1.571111113WAug 4 · 10:30A. Akopyan2.63512141172L. Krutina1.441110167113
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