TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13060854
Played Sep 2Finished
Pavel Cizek
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1191141214611411
Martin Holub
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Holub to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Cizek above · Martin Holub below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 93 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Martin Holub at 54.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Cizek 2–5 Martin Holub Pavel Cizek has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:05What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Holub
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Holub
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cizek 1371 vs Holub 1393
Holub
Correct
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cizek 60% vs Holub 40%
Cizek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cizek 50% vs Holub 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cizek +2 · Holub -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Holub)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCizek 1.83 / Holub 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Holub)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13060854
Cizek1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Holub1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeCizek2wins
AwayHolub5wins
4 of 7 to a deciderHolub leads 5–2, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCizek66.7%2 of 3
AwayHolub100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cizek3Holub4n = 7Holub took 4 of 7
S2Cizek4Holub3n = 7Cizek took 4 of 7
S3Cizek3Holub4n = 7Holub took 4 of 7
S4Cizek3Holub4n = 7Holub took 4 of 7
S5Cizek1Holub3n = 4Holub took 3 of 4
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away343%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricCizekHolubC − HBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match41.944.0−2.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCizekHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime30 / 65 vs 367 / 66746.2%55%30 / 65 vs 367 / 667Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.739.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubCizek 1.83/Holub 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 12 · 08:33P. Cizek—51113842M. Holub—1191111113
WAug 12 · 07:30P. Cizek—116411113M. Holub—51111962
LApr 29 · 06:30P. Cizek—10116101M. Holub—12811123
LMar 25 · 10:08P. Cizek—1211911102M. Holub—147118123
LMar 25 · 07:00P. Cizek—91111792M. Holub—116511113
LMar 11 · 14:03P. Cizek—126671M. Holub—101111113
WMar 11 · 11:00P. Cizek—11811113M. Holub—611771
P. Cizek10
LSep 2 · 12:39P. Moulis2.3811121112113P. Cizek1.5381471472LSep 2 · 11:30P. Cizek2.104680J. Jnr1.671111113WSep 2 · 09:30P. Cizek1.7391111113P. Moulis2.00112791WAug 26 · 09:09M. Snizek1.5731260P. Cizek2.251114113LAug 26 · 08:00P. Cizek2.1011411262M. Snizek1.67911511113WAug 26 · 06:30J. Krejcik1.676111181P. Cizek2.1011136113LAug 26 · 06:00F. Fryml2.6311611113P. Cizek1.44711671WAug 13 · 08:34P. Cizek1.6712411113P. Moulis2.101011651WAug 13 · 07:30P. Moulis1.739780P. Cizek2.001111113LAug 13 · 07:00P. Cizek2.0049100J. Seeman1.731111123
M. Holub10
WSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460LSep 6 · 16:00A. Akopyan2.0091111113M. Holub1.73119741WSep 6 · 15:00P. Muller2.631110761M. Holub1.4481211113WSep 6 · 13:30V. Coubal3.4012711492M. Holub1.301011811113WSep 5 · 12:40M. Holub1.53613311113A. Akopyan2.38111111642WSep 5 · 12:00L. Krutina1.80111012992M. Holub1.919121011113LSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 09:30A. Akopyan2.001211113M. Holub1.7310490WSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub2.001113113J. Jnr1.7391170WSep 2 · 12:00M. Holub2.754111311123P. Moulis1.401171113102
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.