TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13015159
Played Aug 26Finished
Filip Fryml
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117611116117––
Pavel Cizek
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:48 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timePavel Cizek to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingFilip Fryml above · Pavel Cizek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 70 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Pavel Cizek at 62.5%
70 points played in total.
H2H Filip Fryml 2–2 Pavel Cizek Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:48What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Cizek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fryml 1325 vs Cizek 1358
Cizek
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fryml 40% vs Cizek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fryml 30% vs Cizek 60%
Cizek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fryml -2 · Cizek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Cizek) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cizek form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFryml 2.63 / Cizek 1.44
Signal prob.36% / 65%
Edge (Cizek)-0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13015159
Fryml2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 17 of 36
Down 0–1, comes back30% 6 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back15% 2 of 13
Cizek1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 13 of 26
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it75% 12 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeFryml2wins
AwayCizek2wins
Level at 2–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fryml2Cizek2n = 4split evenly
S2Fryml1Cizek3n = 4Cizek took 3 of 4
S3Fryml2Cizek2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricFrymlCizekF − CBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match29.530.5−1.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFrymlCizekBasisWin rate · lifetime71 / 142 vs 29 / 6450%45.3%71 / 142 vs 29 / 64Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CizekFryml 2.63/Cizek 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.5%
Cizek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Fryml won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 26 · 06:00F. Fryml—11611113P. Cizek—711671
LAug 12 · 06:00F. Fryml—61030P. Cizek—1112113
WMay 14 · 10:00F. Fryml—1111113P. Cizek—8970
LApr 22 · 07:00F. Fryml—9990P. Cizek—1111113
F. Fryml10
LAug 27 · 09:03F. Fryml1.835790M. Holub1.831111113WAug 27 · 08:00F. Fryml1.73101111113M. Cmil2.00127981LAug 27 · 06:30M. Holub1.808121110113F. Fryml1.91111061292WAug 27 · 06:00M. Snizek1.50771191F. Fryml2.5011114113WAug 26 · 08:39F. Fryml3.504101111113J. Krejcik1.2811129982LAug 26 · 07:30J. Krejcik1.611113113F. Fryml2.2061160WAug 26 · 07:00F. Fryml2.63111197113M. Snizek1.4447111192LAug 12 · 09:03D. Sabuka1.731111113F. Fryml2.004560LAug 12 · 08:00F. Fryml1.57651111102D. Sabuka2.25111118123WAug 12 · 06:30M. Holub1.6179111182F. Fryml2.20111163113
P. Cizek10
LSep 2 · 12:39P. Moulis2.3811121112113P. Cizek1.5381471472LSep 2 · 11:30P. Cizek2.104680J. Jnr1.671111113LSep 2 · 10:30P. Cizek1.83111112642M. Holub1.83941411113WSep 2 · 09:30P. Cizek1.7391111113P. Moulis2.00112791WAug 26 · 09:09M. Snizek1.5731260P. Cizek2.251114113LAug 26 · 08:00P. Cizek2.1011411262M. Snizek1.67911511113WAug 26 · 06:30J. Krejcik1.676111181P. Cizek2.1011136113WAug 13 · 08:34P. Cizek1.6712411113P. Moulis2.101011651WAug 13 · 07:30P. Moulis1.739780P. Cizek2.001111113LAug 13 · 07:00P. Cizek2.0049100J. Seeman1.731111123
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