TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12406731
Played Aug 12Finished
Martin Holub
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711911116113811
Filip Fryml
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:26 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeMartin Holub to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Holub above · Filip Fryml below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 88 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Martin Holub at 59.7%
88 points played in total.
H2H Martin Holub 8–8 Filip Fryml Dead even across their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:26What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Holub
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-8 in 16
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1337 vs Fryml 1288
Holub
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 40% vs Fryml 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 60% vs Fryml 30%
Holub
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub +1 · Fryml -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Holub) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 1.61 / Fryml 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Holub)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #12406731
Holub1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 100 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it98% 50 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it77% 75 of 98
Fryml2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 18 of 37
Down 0–1, comes back32% 6 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back17% 2 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolub5wins
AwayFryml5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolub80%4 of 5
AwayFryml80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub5Fryml5n = 10split evenly
S2Holub5Fryml5n = 10split evenly
S3Holub8Fryml2n = 10Holub took 8 of 10
S4Holub4Fryml4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolubFrymlH − FBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.335.8+2.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubFrymlBasisWin rate · lifetime360 / 669 vs 66 / 13453.8%49.3%360 / 669 vs 66 / 134Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.637.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubHolub 1.61/Fryml 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.7%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Fryml won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 12 · 06:30M. Holub—79111182F. Fryml—111163113
WJun 19 · 08:39M. Holub—1211113F. Fryml—10580
WJun 19 · 07:30M. Holub—12915143F. Fryml—101113121
WMay 28 · 06:30M. Holub—31112113F. Fryml—1171081
LMay 19 · 07:00M. Holub—781181F. Fryml—11115113
LMar 31 · 20:58M. Holub—471381F. Fryml—111111113
WMar 31 · 18:00M. Holub—11116113F. Fryml—361191
WMar 27 · 09:00M. Holub—1111113F. Fryml—4780
LFeb 25 · 12:00M. Holub—11811762F. Fryml—411511113
LFeb 18 · 10:05M. Holub—911871F. Fryml—11611113
M. Holub10
WSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460LSep 6 · 16:00A. Akopyan2.0091111113M. Holub1.73119741WSep 6 · 15:00P. Muller2.631110761M. Holub1.4481211113WSep 6 · 13:30V. Coubal3.4012711492M. Holub1.301011811113WSep 5 · 12:40M. Holub1.53613311113A. Akopyan2.38111111642WSep 5 · 12:00L. Krutina1.80111012992M. Holub1.919121011113LSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 09:30A. Akopyan2.001211113M. Holub1.7310490WSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub2.001113113J. Jnr1.7391170WSep 2 · 12:00M. Holub2.754111311123P. Moulis1.401171113102
F. Fryml10
LAug 27 · 09:03F. Fryml1.835790M. Holub1.831111113WAug 27 · 08:00F. Fryml1.73101111113M. Cmil2.00127981LAug 27 · 06:30M. Holub1.808121110113F. Fryml1.91111061292WAug 27 · 06:00M. Snizek1.50771191F. Fryml2.5011114113WAug 26 · 08:39F. Fryml3.504101111113J. Krejcik1.2811129982LAug 26 · 07:30J. Krejcik1.611113113F. Fryml2.2061160WAug 26 · 07:00F. Fryml2.63111197113M. Snizek1.4447111192WAug 26 · 06:00F. Fryml2.6311611113P. Cizek1.44711671LAug 12 · 09:03D. Sabuka1.731111113F. Fryml2.004560LAug 12 · 08:00F. Fryml1.57651111102D. Sabuka2.25111118123
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