TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022611
Played Aug 27Finished
Martin Holub
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
81112101161012119
Filip Fryml
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Holub to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Holub above · Filip Fryml below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 100 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Martin Holub at 54.0%
100 points played in total.
H2H Martin Holub 10–8 Filip Fryml Filip Fryml has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:00What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Holub
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-8 in 18
Holub
Correct
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1408 vs Fryml 1325
Holub
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 20% vs Fryml 80%
Fryml
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 40% vs Fryml 60%
Fryml
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub -2 · Fryml +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Holub)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fryml form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 1.80 / Fryml 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Holub)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13022611
Holub1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 106 of 176
Up 2–0, closes it100% 52 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it77% 78 of 102
Fryml1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 17 of 36
Down 0–1, comes back30% 6 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back15% 2 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolub7wins
AwayFryml3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHolub leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolub100%5 of 5
AwayFryml60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub5Fryml5n = 10split evenly
S2Holub6Fryml4n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S3Holub9Fryml1n = 10Holub took 9 of 10
S4Holub3Fryml3n = 7split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolubFrymlH − FBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.733.5+4.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubFrymlBasisWin rate · lifetime370 / 670 vs 71 / 14255.2%50%370 / 670 vs 71 / 142Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubHolub 1.80/Fryml 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 27 · 09:03M. Holub—1111113F. Fryml—5790
WAug 27 · 06:30M. Holub—8121110113F. Fryml—111061292
LAug 12 · 06:30M. Holub—79111182F. Fryml—111163113
WJun 19 · 08:39M. Holub—1211113F. Fryml—10580
WJun 19 · 07:30M. Holub—1291513F. Fryml—10111311
WMay 28 · 06:30M. Holub—31112113F. Fryml—1171081
LMay 19 · 07:00M. Holub—781181F. Fryml—11115113
LMar 31 · 20:58M. Holub—471381F. Fryml—111111113
WMar 31 · 18:00M. Holub—11116113F. Fryml—361191
WMar 27 · 09:00M. Holub—1111113F. Fryml—4780
M. Holub10
WSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460LSep 6 · 16:00A. Akopyan2.0091111113M. Holub1.73119741WSep 6 · 15:00P. Muller2.631110761M. Holub1.4481211113WSep 6 · 13:30V. Coubal3.4012711492M. Holub1.301011811113WSep 5 · 12:40M. Holub1.53613311113A. Akopyan2.38111111642WSep 5 · 12:00L. Krutina1.80111012992M. Holub1.919121011113LSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 09:30A. Akopyan2.001211113M. Holub1.7310490WSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub2.001113113J. Jnr1.7391170WSep 2 · 12:00M. Holub2.754111311123P. Moulis1.401171113102
F. Fryml10
LAug 27 · 09:03F. Fryml1.835790M. Holub1.831111113WAug 27 · 08:00F. Fryml1.73101111113M. Cmil2.00127981WAug 27 · 06:00M. Snizek1.50771191F. Fryml2.5011114113WAug 26 · 08:39F. Fryml3.504101111113J. Krejcik1.2811129982LAug 26 · 07:30J. Krejcik1.611113113F. Fryml2.2061160WAug 26 · 07:00F. Fryml2.63111197113M. Snizek1.4447111192WAug 26 · 06:00F. Fryml2.6311611113P. Cizek1.44711671LAug 12 · 09:03D. Sabuka1.731111113F. Fryml2.004560LAug 12 · 08:00F. Fryml1.57651111102D. Sabuka2.25111118123WAug 12 · 06:30M. Holub1.6179111182F. Fryml2.20111163113
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