TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084437
Played Sep 6Finished
Artur Akopyan
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911119117114––
Martin Holub
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Holub to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingArtur Akopyan above · Martin Holub below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 73 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Martin Holub at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Artur Akopyan 70–52 Martin Holub Martin Holub has won 52 of their 122 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:28What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Holub
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
70-52 in 122
Akopyan
Correct
gap of 18 in 122, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Akopyan 1188 vs Holub 1382
Holub
Wrong
both rated, 194 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Akopyan 0% vs Holub 80%
Holub
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Akopyan 20% vs Holub 70%
Holub
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Akopyan -5 · Holub +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Holub) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAkopyan 2.00 / Holub 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Holub)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13084437
Akopyan2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 52 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back23% 23 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 55
Holub1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite60% won 106 of 178
Up 2–0, closes it98% 52 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it76% 77 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAkopyan5wins
AwayHolub5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAkopyan40%2 of 5
AwayHolub40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Akopyan5Holub5n = 10split evenly
S2Akopyan6Holub4n = 10Akopyan took 6 of 10
S3Akopyan5Holub5n = 10split evenly
S4Akopyan4Holub4n = 8split evenly
S5Akopyan1Holub2n = 3Holub took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricAkopyanHolubA − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.737.2+0.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAkopyanHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime230 / 529 vs 367 / 66643.5%55.1%230 / 529 vs 367 / 666Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubAkopyan 2.00/Holub 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.5%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Akopyan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 16:00A. Akopyan—91111113M. Holub—119741
LSep 5 · 12:40A. Akopyan—111111642M. Holub—613311113
WSep 5 · 09:30A. Akopyan—1211113M. Holub—10490
LAug 19 · 13:15A. Akopyan—124471M. Holub—101111113
LAug 19 · 09:30A. Akopyan—9770M. Holub—1111113
WAug 16 · 20:00A. Akopyan—11114113M. Holub—691171
WAug 13 · 12:29A. Akopyan—111211123M. Holub—13106101
LAug 13 · 11:30A. Akopyan—101111382M. Holub—125711113
WAug 6 · 08:00A. Akopyan—711911113M. Holub—11511852
LAug 4 · 11:30A. Akopyan—117781M. Holub—71111113
A. Akopyan10
WSep 6 · 16:34A. Akopyan2.1012136113P. Muller1.6710111191LSep 6 · 14:30V. Coubal1.611111113A. Akopyan2.207450LSep 6 · 14:00P. Muller1.671111113A. Akopyan2.103990LSep 5 · 12:40M. Holub1.53613311113A. Akopyan2.38111111642LSep 5 · 11:30A. Akopyan2.253650M. Cmil1.571111113LSep 5 · 10:30A. Akopyan2.754890L. Krutina1.401111113WSep 5 · 09:30A. Akopyan2.001211113M. Holub1.7310490LAug 19 · 13:15M. Holub1.83101111113A. Akopyan1.83124471WAug 19 · 11:30A. Akopyan2.501113113V. Kucala1.5091140LAug 19 · 10:30A. Akopyan2.7551151192M. Vydra1.40118119113
M. Holub10
WSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460WSep 6 · 15:00P. Muller2.631110761M. Holub1.4481211113WSep 6 · 13:30V. Coubal3.4012711492M. Holub1.301011811113WSep 5 · 12:40M. Holub1.53613311113A. Akopyan2.38111111642WSep 5 · 12:00L. Krutina1.80111012992M. Holub1.919121011113LSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 09:30A. Akopyan2.001211113M. Holub1.7310490WSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub2.001113113J. Jnr1.7391170WSep 2 · 12:00M. Holub2.754111311123P. Moulis1.401171113102WAug 19 · 13:15M. Holub1.83101111113A. Akopyan1.83124471
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