TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12472328
Played Aug 22Finished
Mikhail Taranko
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
13151311211711––
Stepan Kalensky
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:21 and never touched — 57.8% is still 57.8%
Graded at full timeMikhail Taranko to win
57.8%
57.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMikhail Taranko above · Stepan Kalensky below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 83 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Mikhail Taranko at 57.8%
83 points played in total.
H2H Mikhail Taranko 1–3 Stepan Kalensky Mikhail Taranko has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:21What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Taranko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Kalensky
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Taranko 1503 vs Kalensky 1554
Kalensky
Correct
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Taranko 40% vs Kalensky 20%
Taranko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Taranko 50% vs Kalensky 10%
Taranko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Taranko -3 · Kalensky +1
Taranko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kalensky) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kalensky form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTaranko 1.67 / Kalensky 2.10
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kalensky)+9.8pp
Setka Cup · #12472328
Taranko1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite46% won 16 of 35
Up 2–0, closes it75% 6 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it65% 11 of 17
Kalensky2.10
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog42% won 42 of 99
Down 0–1, comes back25% 16 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeTaranko1wins
AwayKalensky3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderKalensky leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Taranko2Kalensky2n = 4split evenly
S2Taranko1Kalensky3n = 4Kalensky took 3 of 4
S3Taranko3Kalensky1n = 4Taranko took 3 of 4
S4Taranko1Kalensky3n = 4Kalensky took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricTarankoKalenskyT − KBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match38.843.5−4.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTarankoKalenskyBasisWin rate · lifetime74 / 155 vs 280 / 51847.7%54.1%74 / 155 vs 280 / 518Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KalenskyTaranko 1.67/Kalensky 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kalensky · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kalensky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 22 · 06:15M. Taranko—1313271S. Kalensky—151111113
LAug 8 · 08:13M. Taranko—861191S. Kalensky—11116113
LAug 8 · 07:15M. Taranko—116111262S. Kalensky—611914113
WAug 1 · 07:45M. Taranko—11611123S. Kalensky—7118101
M. Taranko10
LSep 6 · 08:29L. Stoces1.221112113M. Taranko4.0051070LSep 6 · 07:15M. Taranko1.917860T. Hanke1.801111113WSep 6 · 06:15M. Taranko2.504111410143L. Stoces1.501191212122LSep 6 · 05:15M. Taranko2.104960D. Brichacek1.671111113LAug 29 · 08:23L. Hendrych2.101611911113M. Taranko1.67146111392WAug 29 · 07:15M. Taranko1.80121299113L. Hendrych1.911010111162WAug 29 · 06:15M. Taranko1.53311114113F. Kubos2.3811771172WAug 29 · 05:15M. Taranko2.101191211123T. Bertho1.67911146102WAug 22 · 08:39J. Snr2.63511991M. Taranko1.4411711113LAug 22 · 07:15M. Taranko1.361111119142J. Snr3.00613811163
S. Kalensky10
WSep 6 · 12:31T. Bertho1.6791060S. Kalensky2.071112113LSep 6 · 11:30V. Herrmann1.9114911113S. Kalensky1.801211691LSep 6 · 11:00S. Kalensky1.8341191192T. Bertho1.83118119113LSep 6 · 10:00S. Kalensky2.25891111122J. Juppa1.57111158143LSep 5 · 16:59F. Kubos1.8011911113S. Kalensky1.91311891WSep 5 · 15:30L. Hendrych2.6391141152S. Kalensky1.44116115113LSep 5 · 14:00S. Kalensky1.731181051F. Kubos2.008111293LSep 5 · 08:59J. Juppa1.9171118113S. Kalensky1.801191671LSep 5 · 08:00S. Kalensky1.91741181J. Juppa1.8011117113WSep 5 · 06:30M. Cizek2.108550S. Kalensky1.671111113
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