TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049825
Played Aug 31Finished
Ondrej Chadima
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1311811119117––
Petr Orlowski
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:43 and never touched — 69.1% is still 69.1%
Graded at full timePetr Orlowski to win
69.1%
69.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOndrej Chadima above · Petr Orlowski below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 81 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Petr Orlowski at 69.1%
81 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Chadima 1–3 Petr Orlowski Ondrej Chadima has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:43What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Orlowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Orlowski
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chadima 1562 vs Orlowski 1632
Orlowski
Wrong
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chadima 60% vs Orlowski 80%
Orlowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chadima 70% vs Orlowski 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chadima -2 · Orlowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Orlowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chadima form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChadima 2.75 / Orlowski 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Orlowski)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13049825
Chadima2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 54 of 146
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 48
Orlowski1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 53 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it90% 26 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it73% 40 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeChadima1wins
AwayOrlowski3wins
2 of 4 to a deciderOrlowski leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chadima2Orlowski2n = 4split evenly
S2Chadima2Orlowski2n = 4split evenly
S3Chadima0Orlowski4n = 4Orlowski took 4 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricChadimaOrlowskiC − OBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match34.241.0−6.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChadimaOrlowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime311 / 602 vs 172 / 32851.7%52.4%311 / 602 vs 172 / 328Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.040.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OrlowskiChadima 2.75/Orlowski 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.1%
Orlowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chadima won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LApr 30 · 18:15O. Chadima—87100P. Orlowski—1111123
WFeb 5 · 20:00O. Chadima—111474113P. Orlowski—712111182
LJan 14 · 22:09O. Chadima—11116392P. Orlowski—771111113
LJan 14 · 19:00O. Chadima—91150P. Orlowski—1113103
O. Chadima10
WSep 5 · 21:00D. Brichacek1.22131111982O. Chadima4.00155211113LSep 5 · 19:30T. Hanke1.73117116113O. Chadima2.0071181172WSep 5 · 19:00O. Chadima2.00912118113J. Juppa1.73111021172LSep 5 · 18:00O. Chadima3.508370D. Brichacek1.281111113WAug 31 · 20:29V. Herrmann1.9151191152O. Chadima1.80116118113LAug 31 · 19:15J. Gruber1.361111113O. Chadima3.004740LAug 31 · 18:45O. Chadima1.831010110V. Herrmann1.831212133LAug 29 · 16:44V. Lopata1.2511119113O. Chadima3.75551141LAug 29 · 15:45O. Chadima2.207730V. Lopata1.611111103WAug 29 · 14:15P. Maly1.833711101O. Chadima1.8311115123
P. Orlowski10
WSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111LSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891WSep 6 · 07:00P. Orlowski2.25111111113M. Hajek1.57461371WSep 6 · 06:00P. Orlowski2.00131110163P. Hala1.7311712141LSep 4 · 21:33D. Brichacek2.20611211113P. Orlowski1.6111811592WSep 4 · 19:30P. Rucky2.1083111152P. Orlowski1.67111153113WSep 4 · 19:00P. Orlowski1.91119211123P. Hala1.80811118102WSep 4 · 18:00P. Orlowski2.1011116113D. Brichacek1.67871161WAug 31 · 20:58P. Orlowski1.73911119113J. Gruber2.0011791182WAug 31 · 19:45P. Orlowski1.44121211113V. Herrmann2.631014951
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