TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037724
Played Aug 29Finished
Tomas Hybl
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171181113117––
Roman Merkl
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:05 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeTomas Hybl to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Hybl above · Roman Merkl below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 79 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Tomas Hybl at 62.9%
79 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Hybl 5–4 Roman Merkl Roman Merkl has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:05What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Hybl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hybl 1590 vs Merkl 1537
Hybl
Correct
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hybl 20% vs Merkl 40%
Merkl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hybl 50% vs Merkl 30%
Hybl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hybl -2 · Merkl +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Hybl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hybl form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHybl 1.50 / Merkl 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Hybl)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13037724
Hybl1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 37 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it85% 22 of 26
Merkl2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 94 of 193
Down 0–1, comes back37% 43 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back19% 10 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeHybl5wins
AwayMerkl4wins
1 of 9 to a deciderHybl leads 5–4, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHybl100%4 of 4
AwayMerkl80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hybl4Merkl5n = 9Merkl took 5 of 9
S2Hybl5Merkl4n = 9Hybl took 5 of 9
S3Hybl5Merkl4n = 9Hybl took 5 of 9
S4Hybl5Merkl2n = 7Hybl took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home444%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricHyblMerklH − MBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match36.235.9+0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHyblMerklBasisWin rate · lifetime81 / 158 vs 276 / 57451.3%48.1%81 / 158 vs 276 / 574Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.139.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HyblHybl 1.50/Merkl 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Hybl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hybl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 29 · 08:29T. Hybl—81171162R. Merkl—118117113
WAug 29 · 07:00T. Hybl—111111113R. Merkl—781371
WApr 21 · 12:59T. Hybl—11612153R. Merkl—51110131
WApr 21 · 09:30T. Hybl—11611113R. Merkl—711841
LJan 31 · 09:52T. Hybl—611471R. Merkl—11911113
LJan 31 · 06:30T. Hybl—9870R. Merkl—1111113
WJan 6 · 08:00T. Hybl—81111123R. Merkl—1166101
LDec 27 · 09:23T. Hybl—781131R. Merkl—11117113
WDec 27 · 07:45T. Hybl—1111113R. Merkl—7790
T. Hybl10
LSep 3 · 16:34J. Simek1.4411711113T. Hybl2.63611751LSep 3 · 15:30T. Hybl1.7311611672J. Simek2.00511811113WSep 3 · 14:30T. Hybl1.8081111133P. Semrad1.911157111LSep 3 · 13:30T. Hybl2.2597100D. Marasek1.571111123LAug 29 · 08:29R. Merkl2.63118117113T. Hybl1.4481171162LAug 29 · 07:30D. Brichacek2.5011911123T. Hybl1.505118101LAug 29 · 06:00T. Hybl2.257560M. Skyba1.571111113LAug 25 · 12:18Z. Vasatko1.7371113113T. Hybl2.001161191WAug 25 · 11:15T. Hucko1.8376100T. Hybl1.831111123LAug 25 · 10:45T. Hybl1.831091131Z. Vasatko1.8312119113
R. Merkl10
LSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111WSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891LSep 6 · 06:30R. Merkl2.10231111102P. Hala1.67111177123WSep 6 · 05:30R. Merkl2.3814711123M. Hajek1.5312117101LSep 2 · 21:04M. Hajek1.611111133R. Merkl2.2026110WSep 2 · 19:30J. Jnr1.8039100R. Merkl1.911111123WSep 2 · 19:00R. Merkl1.911111113P. Maly1.808960LSep 2 · 18:00R. Merkl2.251481191M. Hajek1.5716116113WAug 30 · 08:29R. Merkl1.911191111123A. Pavlik1.80611139102WAug 29 · 08:29R. Merkl2.63118117113T. Hybl1.4481171162
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