TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049736
Played Aug 31Finished
Josef Gruber
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
4111210911311––
Petr Orlowski
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Orlowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJosef Gruber above · Petr Orlowski below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 71 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Petr Orlowski at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Josef Gruber 6–11 Petr Orlowski Josef Gruber has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:23What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Orlowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-11 in 17
Orlowski
Correct
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gruber 1716 vs Orlowski 1645
Gruber
Wrong
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gruber 80% vs Orlowski 60%
Gruber
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gruber 70% vs Orlowski 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gruber +4 · Orlowski -2
Gruber
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Orlowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gruber form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGruber 1.91 / Orlowski 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Orlowski)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13049736
Gruber1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 9 of 19
Down 0–1, comes back39% 5 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back17% 1 of 6
Orlowski1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 53 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it90% 26 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it73% 40 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGruber4wins
AwayOrlowski6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderOrlowski leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrubern = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayOrlowski62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gruber2Orlowski8n = 10Orlowski took 8 of 10
S2Gruber5Orlowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Gruber2Orlowski8n = 10Orlowski took 8 of 10
S4Gruber3Orlowski5n = 8Orlowski took 5 of 8
S5Gruber4Orlowski0n = 4Gruber took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricGruberOrlowskiG − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match35.741.3−5.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGruberOrlowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime120 / 209 vs 174 / 33157.4%52.6%120 / 209 vs 174 / 331Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.340.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OrlowskiGruber 1.91/Orlowski 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Orlowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Orlowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 18:15J. Gruber—412931P. Orlowski—111011113
WJul 20 · 19:15J. Gruber—5111211113P. Orlowski—11214972
LJul 14 · 21:03J. Gruber—611941P. Orlowski—11811113
LJul 14 · 18:30J. Gruber—72100P. Orlowski—1111123
WJun 30 · 19:00J. Gruber—412126113P. Orlowski—1110101122
WMay 19 · 17:15J. Gruber—117911113P. Orlowski—71111882
WApr 16 · 20:42J. Gruber—611911113P. Orlowski—11811782
LApr 16 · 19:30J. Gruber—117791P. Orlowski—91111113
LJan 26 · 19:45J. Gruber—871171P. Orlowski—11118113
LJan 12 · 18:45J. Gruber—31170P. Orlowski—1113113
J. Gruber10
LAug 31 · 20:58P. Orlowski1.73911119113J. Gruber2.0011791182WAug 31 · 19:15J. Gruber1.361111113O. Chadima3.004740WAug 31 · 17:15J. Gruber1.3611116113V. Herrmann3.00791171WAug 18 · 21:10P. Maly2.25513110J. Gruber1.571115133WAug 18 · 19:30J. Gruber1.8311713123A. Pavlik1.8331111101WAug 18 · 18:30J. Gruber1.40111111113R. Merkl2.75451361LAug 18 · 17:30J. Gruber1.539511101P. Maly2.3811118123WAug 4 · 20:33R. Merkl2.639990J. Gruber1.441111113LAug 4 · 19:30J. Gruber1.3389111192O. Chadima3.25111192113LAug 4 · 18:30J. Gruber1.738880T. Hanke2.001111113
P. Orlowski10
WSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111LSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891WSep 6 · 07:00P. Orlowski2.25111111113M. Hajek1.57461371WSep 6 · 06:00P. Orlowski2.00131110163P. Hala1.7311712141LSep 4 · 21:33D. Brichacek2.20611211113P. Orlowski1.6111811592WSep 4 · 19:30P. Rucky2.1083111152P. Orlowski1.67111153113WSep 4 · 19:00P. Orlowski1.91119211123P. Hala1.80811118102WSep 4 · 18:00P. Orlowski2.1011116113D. Brichacek1.67871161WAug 31 · 20:58P. Orlowski1.73911119113J. Gruber2.0011791182WAug 31 · 19:45P. Orlowski1.44121211113V. Herrmann2.631014951
Upcoming Matches
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P. Orlowski
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