TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12451739
Played Aug 18Finished
Josef Gruber
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11371113111210––
Adam Pavlik
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:10 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJosef Gruber to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJosef Gruber above · Adam Pavlik below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 78 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Josef Gruber at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:10What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Pavlik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Gruber 1694 vs Pavlik 1615
Gruber
Correct
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gruber 40% vs Pavlik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gruber 70% vs Pavlik 50%
Gruber
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gruber +1 · Pavlik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Gruber)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pavlik form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGruber 1.83 / Pavlik 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Gruber)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12451739
Gruber1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Pavlik1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricGruberPavlikBasisWin rate · lifetime120 / 211 vs 162 / 31856.9%50.9%120 / 211 vs 162 / 318Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GruberGruber 1.83/Pavlik 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Gruber · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Gruber won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
J. Gruber10
LAug 31 · 20:58P. Orlowski1.73911119113J. Gruber2.0011791182WAug 31 · 19:15J. Gruber1.361111113O. Chadima3.004740LAug 31 · 18:15J. Gruber1.91412931P. Orlowski1.80111011113WAug 31 · 17:15J. Gruber1.3611116113V. Herrmann3.00791171WAug 18 · 21:10P. Maly2.25513110J. Gruber1.571115133WAug 18 · 18:30J. Gruber1.40111111113R. Merkl2.75451361LAug 18 · 17:30J. Gruber1.539511101P. Maly2.3811118123WAug 4 · 20:33R. Merkl2.639990J. Gruber1.441111113LAug 4 · 19:30J. Gruber1.3389111192O. Chadima3.25111192113LAug 4 · 18:30J. Gruber1.738880T. Hanke2.001111113
A. Pavlik10
LSep 6 · 20:23M. Svitac1.731112113A. Pavlik2.0071090LSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113LSep 6 · 18:15A. Pavlik1.83113471M. Svitac1.8391111113LSep 6 · 17:15A. Pavlik2.2551490M. Hajek1.571116103LAug 30 · 08:29R. Merkl1.911191111123A. Pavlik1.80611139102LAug 30 · 07:30T. Kanka1.80711119113A. Pavlik1.9111961192LAug 30 · 07:00A. Pavlik2.10101111742L. Kolman1.67129311113WAug 30 · 06:00A. Pavlik1.8011911153R. Merkl1.916117131LAug 28 · 20:19A. Pavlik1.679970P. Provaznik2.101111113WAug 28 · 19:15P. Provaznik1.80861191A. Pavlik1.9111114103
Upcoming Matches
J. Gruber
Nothing scheduled
A. Pavlik
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