TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12457299
Played Aug 18Finished
Petr Maly
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
51113151113––––
Josef Gruber
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:09 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeJosef Gruber to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Maly above · Josef Gruber below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 68 set 3, 11-13 — our read held Josef Gruber at 58.9%
68 points played in total.
H2H Petr Maly 5–5 Josef Gruber Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:09What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Gruber
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maly 1610 vs Gruber 1703
Gruber
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maly 60% vs Gruber 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maly 40% vs Gruber 70%
Gruber
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maly +1 · Gruber +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Gruber)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maly form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaly 2.25 / Gruber 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Gruber)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12457299
Maly2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog60% won 39 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back42% 14 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back28% 5 of 18
Gruber1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 50 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it87% 39 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaly5wins
AwayGruber5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaly75%3 of 4
AwayGruber66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maly4Gruber6n = 10Gruber took 6 of 10
S2Maly3Gruber7n = 10Gruber took 7 of 10
S3Maly6Gruber4n = 10Maly took 6 of 10
S4Maly5Gruber2n = 7Maly took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMalyGruberM − GBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.837.8−1.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMalyGruberBasisWin rate · lifetime241 / 443 vs 121 / 21254.4%57.1%241 / 443 vs 121 / 212Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.839.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GruberMaly 2.25/Gruber 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Gruber · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Gruber won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 18 · 17:30P. Maly—11118123J. Gruber—9511101
LDec 5 · 19:15P. Maly—7990J. Gruber—1111113
WAug 20 · 20:45P. Maly—1041114113J. Gruber—121181272
WAug 20 · 19:45P. Maly—111211113J. Gruber—914661
LJul 21 · 19:30P. Maly—791191J. Gruber—11114103
LMay 23 · 19:00P. Maly—78111482J. Gruber—1111812113
LMay 18 · 11:45P. Maly—1110651J. Gruber—81211113
LApr 28 · 18:15P. Maly—10460J. Gruber—1211113
WApr 15 · 18:00P. Maly—41111113J. Gruber—117891
WMar 29 · 13:00P. Maly—1111113J. Gruber—8890
P. Maly10
LSep 5 · 12:19V. Lopata1.67101111113P. Maly2.10126851LSep 5 · 11:15P. Maly1.6112111171V. Herrmann2.2014138103WSep 5 · 10:15P. Maly2.00119713113V. Lopata1.73511111142LSep 5 · 09:15P. Maly2.25124871L. Kolman1.57101111113LSep 2 · 20:34P. Maly1.91613631J. Jnr1.80111111113LSep 2 · 20:00M. Hajek1.57111112113P. Maly2.25781491LSep 2 · 19:00R. Merkl1.911111113P. Maly1.808960LSep 2 · 17:30J. Jnr1.83111111113P. Maly1.83741391LSep 1 · 20:18T. Hucko1.5711101210113P. Maly2.25912101262LSep 1 · 19:15P. Maly2.388990T. Hucko1.531111113
J. Gruber10
LAug 31 · 20:58P. Orlowski1.73911119113J. Gruber2.0011791182WAug 31 · 19:15J. Gruber1.361111113O. Chadima3.004740LAug 31 · 18:15J. Gruber1.91412931P. Orlowski1.80111011113WAug 31 · 17:15J. Gruber1.3611116113V. Herrmann3.00791171WAug 18 · 19:30J. Gruber1.8311713123A. Pavlik1.8331111101WAug 18 · 18:30J. Gruber1.40111111113R. Merkl2.75451361LAug 18 · 17:30J. Gruber1.539511101P. Maly2.3811118123WAug 4 · 20:33R. Merkl2.639990J. Gruber1.441111113LAug 4 · 19:30J. Gruber1.3389111192O. Chadima3.25111192113LAug 4 · 18:30J. Gruber1.738880T. Hanke2.001111113
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