TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12451736
Played Aug 18Finished
Josef Gruber
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1141151113116––
Roman Merkl
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:12 and never touched — 71.3% is still 71.3%
Graded at full timeJosef Gruber to win
71.3%
71.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJosef Gruber above · Roman Merkl below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 72 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Josef Gruber at 71.3%
72 points played in total.
H2H Josef Gruber 7–3 Roman Merkl Roman Merkl has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:12What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Gruber
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-3 in 10
Gruber
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gruber 1703 vs Merkl 1583
Gruber
Correct
both rated, 120 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gruber 40% vs Merkl 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gruber 60% vs Merkl 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gruber -1 · Merkl +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Gruber) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gruber form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGruber 1.40 / Merkl 2.75
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Gruber)+6.0pp
Setka Cup · #12451736
Gruber1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 50 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it87% 39 of 45
Merkl2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 92 of 184
Down 0–1, comes back41% 45 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back20% 10 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGruber7wins
AwayMerkl3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderGruber leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGruber100%6 of 6
AwayMerkl75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gruber6Merkl4n = 10Gruber took 6 of 10
S2Gruber7Merkl3n = 10Gruber took 7 of 10
S3Gruber5Merkl5n = 10split evenly
S4Gruber5Merkl2n = 7Gruber took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGruberMerklG − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.636.0+5.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGruberMerklBasisWin rate · lifetime121 / 212 vs 273 / 56657.1%48.2%121 / 212 vs 273 / 566Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GruberGruber 1.40/Merkl 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.3%
Gruber · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Gruber won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 18 · 18:30J. Gruber—111111113R. Merkl—451361
WAug 4 · 20:33J. Gruber—1111113R. Merkl—9990
WAug 4 · 17:30J. Gruber—11114133R. Merkl—9611111
WJul 31 · 18:00J. Gruber—101111123R. Merkl—1278101
LMay 8 · 17:45J. Gruber—911169112R. Merkl—1141411133
WMar 28 · 06:30J. Gruber—1111133R. Merkl—66110
LMar 14 · 07:45J. Gruber—861191R. Merkl—11113113
WMar 2 · 20:00J. Gruber—1151011113R. Merkl—71112422
WFeb 28 · 09:53J. Gruber—18159113R. Merkl—16131161
LFeb 28 · 07:45J. Gruber—108120R. Merkl—1211143
J. Gruber10
LAug 31 · 20:58P. Orlowski1.73911119113J. Gruber2.0011791182WAug 31 · 19:15J. Gruber1.361111113O. Chadima3.004740LAug 31 · 18:15J. Gruber1.91412931P. Orlowski1.80111011113WAug 31 · 17:15J. Gruber1.3611116113V. Herrmann3.00791171WAug 18 · 21:10P. Maly2.25513110J. Gruber1.571115133WAug 18 · 19:30J. Gruber1.8311713123A. Pavlik1.8331111101LAug 18 · 17:30J. Gruber1.539511101P. Maly2.3811118123WAug 4 · 20:33R. Merkl2.639990J. Gruber1.441111113LAug 4 · 19:30J. Gruber1.3389111192O. Chadima3.25111192113LAug 4 · 18:30J. Gruber1.738880T. Hanke2.001111113
R. Merkl10
LSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111WSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891LSep 6 · 06:30R. Merkl2.10231111102P. Hala1.67111177123WSep 6 · 05:30R. Merkl2.3814711123M. Hajek1.5312117101LSep 2 · 21:04M. Hajek1.611111133R. Merkl2.2026110WSep 2 · 19:30J. Jnr1.8039100R. Merkl1.911111123WSep 2 · 19:00R. Merkl1.911111113P. Maly1.808960LSep 2 · 18:00R. Merkl2.251481191M. Hajek1.5716116113WAug 30 · 08:29R. Merkl1.911191111123A. Pavlik1.80611139102LAug 4 · 20:33R. Merkl2.639990J. Gruber1.441111113
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