TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12451721
Played Aug 18Finished
Josef Gruber
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9115111181012––
Petr Maly
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:12 and never touched — 63.8% is still 63.8%
Graded at full timeJosef Gruber to win
63.8%
63.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJosef Gruber above · Petr Maly below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 77 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Josef Gruber at 63.8%
77 points played in total.
H2H Josef Gruber 5–5 Petr Maly Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:12What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Gruber
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gruber 1685 vs Maly 1614
Gruber
Wrong
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gruber 60% vs Maly 20%
Gruber
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gruber 70% vs Maly 50%
Gruber
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gruber +1 · Maly -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Gruber) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maly form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGruber 1.53 / Maly 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Gruber)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12451721
Gruber1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 50 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it87% 39 of 45
Maly2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog60% won 39 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back42% 14 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back28% 5 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGruber5wins
AwayMaly5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGruber66.7%4 of 6
AwayMaly75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gruber6Maly4n = 10Gruber took 6 of 10
S2Gruber7Maly3n = 10Gruber took 7 of 10
S3Gruber4Maly6n = 10Maly took 6 of 10
S4Gruber2Maly5n = 7Maly took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGruberMalyG − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.836.8+1.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGruberMalyBasisWin rate · lifetime119 / 210 vs 240 / 44156.7%54.4%119 / 210 vs 240 / 441Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GruberGruber 1.53/Maly 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.8%
Gruber · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Maly won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 18 · 17:30J. Gruber—9511101P. Maly—11118123
WDec 5 · 19:15J. Gruber—1111113P. Maly—7990
LAug 20 · 20:45J. Gruber—121181272P. Maly—1041114113
LAug 20 · 19:45J. Gruber—914661P. Maly—111211113
WJul 21 · 19:30J. Gruber—11114103P. Maly—791191
WMay 23 · 19:00J. Gruber—1111812113P. Maly—78111482
WMay 18 · 11:45J. Gruber—81211113P. Maly—1110651
WApr 28 · 18:15J. Gruber—1211113P. Maly—10460
LApr 15 · 18:00J. Gruber—117891P. Maly—41111113
LMar 29 · 13:00J. Gruber—8890P. Maly—1111113
J. Gruber10
LAug 31 · 20:58P. Orlowski1.73911119113J. Gruber2.0011791182WAug 31 · 19:15J. Gruber1.361111113O. Chadima3.004740LAug 31 · 18:15J. Gruber1.91412931P. Orlowski1.80111011113WAug 31 · 17:15J. Gruber1.3611116113V. Herrmann3.00791171WAug 18 · 21:10P. Maly2.25513110J. Gruber1.571115133WAug 18 · 19:30J. Gruber1.8311713123A. Pavlik1.8331111101WAug 18 · 18:30J. Gruber1.40111111113R. Merkl2.75451361WAug 4 · 20:33R. Merkl2.639990J. Gruber1.441111113LAug 4 · 19:30J. Gruber1.3389111192O. Chadima3.25111192113LAug 4 · 18:30J. Gruber1.738880T. Hanke2.001111113
P. Maly10
LSep 5 · 12:19V. Lopata1.67101111113P. Maly2.10126851LSep 5 · 11:15P. Maly1.6112111171V. Herrmann2.2014138103WSep 5 · 10:15P. Maly2.00119713113V. Lopata1.73511111142LSep 5 · 09:15P. Maly2.25124871L. Kolman1.57101111113LSep 2 · 20:34P. Maly1.91613631J. Jnr1.80111111113LSep 2 · 20:00M. Hajek1.57111112113P. Maly2.25781491LSep 2 · 19:00R. Merkl1.911111113P. Maly1.808960LSep 2 · 17:30J. Jnr1.83111111113P. Maly1.83741391LSep 1 · 20:18T. Hucko1.5711101210113P. Maly2.25912101262LAug 18 · 21:10P. Maly2.25513110J. Gruber1.571115133
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