TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12357724
Played Aug 4Finished
Josef Gruber
Home
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811911119112911
Ondrej Chadima
Away
3.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:25 and never touched — 80.9% is still 80.9%
Graded at full timeJosef Gruber to win
80.9%
80.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJosef Gruber above · Ondrej Chadima below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-2
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 92 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Josef Gruber at 80.9%
92 points played in total.
H2H Josef Gruber 5–1 Ondrej Chadima Ondrej Chadima has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:25What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Gruber
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Gruber
Wrong
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gruber 1704 vs Chadima 1579
Gruber
Wrong
both rated, 124 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gruber 80% vs Chadima 60%
Gruber
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gruber 70% vs Chadima 50%
Gruber
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gruber -1 · Chadima +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Gruber)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chadima form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGruber 1.33 / Chadima 3.25
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (Gruber)+10.0pp
Setka Cup · #12357724
Gruber1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 49 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it86% 37 of 43
Chadima3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 49 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back19% 16 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeGruber5wins
AwayChadima1wins
2 of 6 to a deciderGruber leads 5–1, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGruber100%4 of 4
AwayChadiman = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gruber4Chadima2n = 6Gruber took 4 of 6
S2Gruber5Chadima1n = 6Gruber took 5 of 6
S3Gruber4Chadima2n = 6Gruber took 4 of 6
S4Gruber3Chadima1n = 4Gruber took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricGruberChadimaG − CBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match41.232.2+9.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGruberChadimaBasisWin rate · lifetime121 / 219 vs 312 / 59555.3%52.4%121 / 219 vs 312 / 595Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GruberGruber 1.33/Chadima 3.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
80.9%
Gruber · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chadima won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WDec 15 · 11:00J. Gruber—1111113O. Chadima—2990
WDec 8 · 13:29J. Gruber—111110113O. Chadima—771271
LDec 8 · 12:30J. Gruber—101111582O. Chadima—127611113
WOct 18 · 09:45J. Gruber—1111113O. Chadima—7460
WOct 4 · 09:30J. Gruber—118811133O. Chadima—311114112
WApr 6 · 16:00J. Gruber—81211113O. Chadima—1110781
J. Gruber10
LAug 31 · 20:58P. Orlowski1.73911119113J. Gruber2.0011791182WAug 31 · 19:15J. Gruber1.361111113O. Chadima3.004740LAug 31 · 18:15J. Gruber1.91412931P. Orlowski1.80111011113WAug 31 · 17:15J. Gruber1.3611116113V. Herrmann3.00791171WAug 18 · 21:10P. Maly2.25513110J. Gruber1.571115133WAug 18 · 19:30J. Gruber1.8311713123A. Pavlik1.8331111101WAug 18 · 18:30J. Gruber1.40111111113R. Merkl2.75451361LAug 18 · 17:30J. Gruber1.539511101P. Maly2.3811118123WAug 4 · 20:33R. Merkl2.639990J. Gruber1.441111113LAug 4 · 18:30J. Gruber1.738880T. Hanke2.001111113
O. Chadima10
WSep 5 · 21:00D. Brichacek1.22131111982O. Chadima4.00155211113LSep 5 · 19:30T. Hanke1.73117116113O. Chadima2.0071181172WSep 5 · 19:00O. Chadima2.00912118113J. Juppa1.73111021172LSep 5 · 18:00O. Chadima3.508370D. Brichacek1.281111113WAug 31 · 20:29V. Herrmann1.9151191152O. Chadima1.80116118113LAug 31 · 19:15J. Gruber1.361111113O. Chadima3.004740LAug 31 · 18:45O. Chadima1.831010110V. Herrmann1.831212133WAug 31 · 17:45O. Chadima2.7513811113P. Orlowski1.401111971LAug 29 · 16:44V. Lopata1.2511119113O. Chadima3.75551141LAug 29 · 15:45O. Chadima2.207730V. Lopata1.611111103
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.