TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049830
Played Aug 31Finished
Josef Gruber
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117119611117––
Vit Herrmann
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:43 and never touched — 70.8% is still 70.8%
Graded at full timeJosef Gruber to win
70.8%
70.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJosef Gruber above · Vit Herrmann below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 73 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Josef Gruber at 70.8%
73 points played in total.
H2H Josef Gruber 7–3 Vit Herrmann Vit Herrmann has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:43What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Gruber
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-3 in 10
Gruber
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gruber 1714 vs Herrmann 1635
Gruber
Correct
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gruber 80% vs Herrmann 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gruber 70% vs Herrmann 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gruber +3 · Herrmann +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Gruber)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Herrmann form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGruber 1.36 / Herrmann 3.00
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Gruber)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13049830
Gruber1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 48 of 74
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it88% 38 of 43
Herrmann3.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog51% won 62 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back33% 19 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGruber7wins
AwayHerrmann3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderGruber leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGruber71.4%5 of 7
AwayHerrmannn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gruber7Herrmann2n = 9Gruber took 7 of 9
S2Gruber6Herrmann3n = 9Gruber took 6 of 9
S3Gruber5Herrmann4n = 9Gruber took 5 of 9
S4Gruber4Herrmann2n = 6Gruber took 4 of 6
S5Gruber1Herrmann2n = 3Herrmann took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGruberHerrmannG − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set72+5of 9Avg pointsper match41.132.3+8.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGruberHerrmannBasisWin rate · lifetime118 / 206 vs 210 / 43457.3%48.4%118 / 206 vs 210 / 434Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GruberGruber 1.36/Herrmann 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.8%
Gruber · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Gruber won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WJan 24 · 10:45J. Gruber—1111113V. Herrmann—4680
WDec 5 · 21:49J. Gruber—4111110133V. Herrmann—114312112
LDec 5 · 18:15J. Gruber—116131182V. Herrmann—911157113
WNov 12 · 19:45J. Gruber—111113113V. Herrmann—551581
WOct 28 · 19:00J. Gruber—11119103V. Herrmann—751131
LOct 8 · 18:15J. Gruber—111081172V. Herrmann—412115113
WOct 4 · 11:30J. Gruber—1111113V. Herrmann—4680
LSep 24 · 20:00J. Gruber—11101161V. Herrmann—13124113
WAug 25 · 17:45J. Gruber—1112113V. Herrmann—11080
J. Gruber10
LAug 31 · 20:58P. Orlowski1.73911119113J. Gruber2.0011791182WAug 31 · 19:15J. Gruber1.361111113O. Chadima3.004740LAug 31 · 18:15J. Gruber1.91412931P. Orlowski1.80111011113WAug 18 · 21:10P. Maly2.25513110J. Gruber1.571115133WAug 18 · 19:30J. Gruber1.8311713123A. Pavlik1.8331111101WAug 18 · 18:30J. Gruber1.40111111113R. Merkl2.75451361LAug 18 · 17:30J. Gruber1.539511101P. Maly2.3811118123WAug 4 · 20:33R. Merkl2.639990J. Gruber1.441111113LAug 4 · 19:30J. Gruber1.3389111192O. Chadima3.25111192113LAug 4 · 18:30J. Gruber1.738880T. Hanke2.001111113
V. Herrmann10
WSep 6 · 13:00J. Juppa1.50911791V. Herrmann2.5011811113WSep 6 · 11:30V. Herrmann1.9114911113S. Kalensky1.801211691LSep 6 · 10:30V. Herrmann1.80891181J. Juppa1.9111113113WSep 6 · 09:30V. Herrmann1.83111011113T. Bertho1.83512931WSep 5 · 12:49L. Kolman1.57107111282V. Herrmann2.251211910103WSep 5 · 11:15P. Maly1.6112111171V. Herrmann2.2014138103LSep 5 · 10:45V. Herrmann2.5013990L. Kolman1.501511113WSep 5 · 09:45V. Herrmann2.0011136113V. Lopata1.739111171LAug 31 · 20:29V. Herrmann1.9151191152O. Chadima1.80116118113LAug 31 · 19:45P. Orlowski1.44121211113V. Herrmann2.631014951
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