TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12357473
Played Aug 4Finished
Josef Gruber
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811811811––––
Tomas Hanke
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:27 and never touched — 60.0% is still 60.0%
Graded at full timeJosef Gruber to win
60.0%
60.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJosef Gruber above · Tomas Hanke below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 57 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Josef Gruber at 60.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Josef Gruber 3–4 Tomas Hanke Josef Gruber has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:27What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Gruber
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gruber 1723 vs Hanke 1577
Gruber
Wrong
both rated, 147 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gruber 100% vs Hanke 60%
Gruber
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gruber 80% vs Hanke 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gruber +5 · Hanke +1
Gruber
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Gruber)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gruber form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGruber 1.73 / Hanke 2.00
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Gruber)+6.0pp
Setka Cup · #12357473
Gruber1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 49 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it86% 37 of 43
Hanke2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 31 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back33% 8 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back10% 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeGruber3wins
AwayHanke4wins
Hanke leads 4–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGruber100%3 of 3
AwayHanke100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gruber3Hanke4n = 7Hanke took 4 of 7
S2Gruber1Hanke6n = 7Hanke took 6 of 7
S3Gruber6Hanke1n = 7Gruber took 6 of 7
S4Gruber2Hanke3n = 5Hanke took 3 of 5
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away343%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricGruberHankeG − HBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match34.734.4+0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGruberHankeBasisWin rate · lifetime121 / 218 vs 297 / 53755.5%55.3%121 / 218 vs 297 / 537Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GruberGruber 1.73/Hanke 2.00
Miss
What we said
59.7%
Gruber · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Hanke won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LJun 17 · 21:13J. Gruber—1071191T. Hanke—12114113
LJun 17 · 19:00J. Gruber—961131T. Hanke—11117113
WMar 31 · 17:15J. Gruber—11712113T. Hanke—7111071
WOct 8 · 17:15J. Gruber—11611113T. Hanke—511591
LAug 20 · 18:15J. Gruber—7511151T. Hanke—11116173
WJul 16 · 18:30J. Gruber—1111113T. Hanke—6460
LJun 25 · 17:15J. Gruber—85130T. Hanke—1111153
J. Gruber10
LAug 31 · 20:58P. Orlowski1.73911119113J. Gruber2.0011791182WAug 31 · 19:15J. Gruber1.361111113O. Chadima3.004740LAug 31 · 18:15J. Gruber1.91412931P. Orlowski1.80111011113WAug 31 · 17:15J. Gruber1.3611116113V. Herrmann3.00791171WAug 18 · 21:10P. Maly2.25513110J. Gruber1.571115133WAug 18 · 19:30J. Gruber1.8311713123A. Pavlik1.8331111101WAug 18 · 18:30J. Gruber1.40111111113R. Merkl2.75451361LAug 18 · 17:30J. Gruber1.539511101P. Maly2.3811118123WAug 4 · 20:33R. Merkl2.639990J. Gruber1.441111113LAug 4 · 19:30J. Gruber1.3389111192O. Chadima3.25111192113
T. Hanke10
LSep 6 · 08:58D. Brichacek1.401611911133T. Hanke2.75187116112WSep 6 · 07:15M. Taranko1.917860T. Hanke1.801111113LSep 6 · 06:45T. Hanke2.7511711462D. Brichacek1.40711611113LSep 6 · 05:45T. Hanke2.001191061L. Stoces1.7391112113LSep 5 · 20:30J. Juppa2.2011156203T. Hanke1.6171311181WSep 5 · 19:30T. Hanke1.73117116113O. Chadima2.0071181172LSep 5 · 18:30T. Hanke2.5071190D. Brichacek1.501113113LSep 5 · 17:30T. Hanke1.6181181162J. Juppa2.20116117113LAug 28 · 20:28D. Brichacek1.671111113T. Hanke2.105440LAug 28 · 19:30T. Hanke2.10611512122D. Brichacek1.671161110143
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