TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049420
Played Aug 31Finished
Jaroslav Puk
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611118116811211
Martin Vorel
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Puk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJaroslav Puk above · Martin Vorel below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 2-11
Point 85 set 5, 2-11 — our read held Jaroslav Puk at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Puk 35–27 Martin Vorel Martin Vorel has won 27 of their 62 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:58What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vorel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
35-27 in 62
Puk
Wrong
gap of 8 in 62, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Puk 1379 vs Vorel 1456
Vorel
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Puk 0% vs Vorel 80%
Vorel
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Puk 50% vs Vorel 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Puk -5 · Vorel -1
Puk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Vorel) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorel form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPuk 2.00 / Vorel 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Vorel)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13049420
Puk2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 39 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back24% 14 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Vorel1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 102 of 181
Up 2–0, closes it90% 44 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it77% 75 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePuk5wins
AwayVorel5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePuk75%3 of 4
AwayVorel66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Puk4Vorel6n = 10Vorel took 6 of 10
S2Puk5Vorel5n = 10split evenly
S3Puk7Vorel3n = 10Puk took 7 of 10
S4Puk3Vorel3n = 6split evenly
S5Puk1Vorel2n = 3Vorel took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPukVorelP − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.737.5−2.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPukVorelBasisWin rate · lifetime153 / 316 vs 414 / 79448.4%52.1%153 / 316 vs 414 / 794Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VorelPuk 2.00/Vorel 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Vorel · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vorel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 06:00J. Puk—61111822M. Vorel—118611113
LAug 25 · 09:03J. Puk—11431582M. Vorel—8111113113
LAug 25 · 08:00J. Puk—4611101M. Vorel—11116123
WAug 19 · 08:58J. Puk—12611113M. Vorel—1011781
WAug 19 · 08:00J. Puk—1111113M. Vorel—7660
LJul 21 · 12:38J. Puk—1690M. Vorel—1111113
WJul 21 · 09:30J. Puk—1311143M. Vorel—119120
WMay 15 · 10:30J. Puk—411117123M. Vorel—116911102
WMay 12 · 12:59J. Puk—81113113M. Vorel—1161161
LMay 12 · 12:00J. Puk—9670M. Vorel—1111113
J. Puk10
WSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk1.83119116133M. Vorel1.83611711112LSep 4 · 08:00J. Puk1.6711141110142P. Moulis2.10816912163WSep 4 · 06:30M. Snizek2.6310660J. Puk1.441211113LSep 4 · 06:00M. Vorel1.836111110113J. Puk1.8311891252WAug 31 · 08:34T. Bertho1.61511791J. Puk2.2011711113LAug 31 · 07:30P. Hlina1.53118911113J. Puk2.3891111672LAug 31 · 07:00J. Puk2.10158100T. Bertho1.671711123LAug 25 · 09:03M. Vorel1.738111113113J. Puk2.0011431582LAug 25 · 08:00J. Puk1.804611101M. Vorel1.9111116123LAug 25 · 06:30P. Hlina1.6711116113J. Puk2.10661191
M. Vorel10
LSep 7 · 08:00O. Plyska2.101151213113M. Vorel1.67511141192LSep 7 · 07:00J. Mejzlik2.001091111113M. Vorel1.7312119982LSep 7 · 05:30P. Hlina1.5311811113M. Vorel2.38511751LSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk1.83119116133M. Vorel1.83611711112WSep 4 · 07:30M. Snizek2.2061151172M. Vorel1.61117118113WSep 4 · 07:00M. Vorel1.3681111113P. Moulis3.00113531WSep 4 · 06:00M. Vorel1.836111110113J. Puk1.8311891252LSep 2 · 16:28M. Vorel2.109870P. Hlina1.671111113WAug 25 · 09:03M. Vorel1.738111113113J. Puk2.0011431582WAug 25 · 08:00J. Puk1.804611101M. Vorel1.9111116123
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