TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13007349
Played Aug 25Finished
Jakub Mejzlik
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114911117116––
Martin Vorel
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:35 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeMartin Vorel to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Mejzlik above · Martin Vorel below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 70 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Martin Vorel at 60.8%
70 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Mejzlik 2–3 Martin Vorel Jakub Mejzlik has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:35What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Vorel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mejzlik 1385 vs Vorel 1379
Mejzlik
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mejzlik 60% vs Vorel 40%
Mejzlik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mejzlik 50% vs Vorel 30%
Mejzlik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mejzlik +1 · Vorel -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Vorel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorel form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMejzlik 2.38 / Vorel 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Vorel)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13007349
Mejzlik2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 39 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back17% 7 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Vorel1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 98 of 178
Up 2–0, closes it90% 43 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it78% 72 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMejzlik2wins
AwayVorel3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderVorel leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMejzlikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayVorel100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mejzlik2Vorel3n = 5Vorel took 3 of 5
S2Mejzlik3Vorel2n = 5Mejzlik took 3 of 5
S3Mejzlik1Vorel4n = 5Vorel took 4 of 5
S4Mejzlik3Vorel2n = 5Mejzlik took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricMejzlikVorelM − VBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match41.440.4+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMejzlikVorelBasisWin rate · lifetime146 / 303 vs 412 / 79748.2%51.7%146 / 303 vs 412 / 797Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VorelMejzlik 2.38/Vorel 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.2%
Vorel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mejzlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 25 · 07:00J. Mejzlik—11911113M. Vorel—411761
LAug 19 · 07:00J. Mejzlik—9111061M. Vorel—11312113
WAug 10 · 14:30J. Mejzlik—136811113M. Vorel—111111572
LMay 15 · 12:00J. Mejzlik—10116101M. Vorel—12711123
LJan 14 · 09:00J. Mejzlik—101141172M. Vorel—129117113
J. Mejzlik10
LSep 7 · 08:38J. Mejzlik2.1010111151P. Hlina1.6712313113WSep 7 · 07:30P. Hlina1.5311118652J. Mejzlik2.38681111113WSep 7 · 07:00J. Mejzlik2.001091111113M. Vorel1.7312119982WSep 7 · 06:00J. Mejzlik1.9191111113O. Plyska1.80115971LAug 25 · 08:33J. Mejzlik1.917750P. Hlina1.801111113LAug 25 · 07:30P. Hlina2.20911119133J. Mejzlik1.61115611112WAug 25 · 06:00J. Mejzlik1.738111111123J. Puk2.00116138102LAug 19 · 08:37J. Mejzlik3.759790L. Tuma1.251111113WAug 19 · 07:30L. Tuma2.2511711101J. Mejzlik1.5713119123LAug 19 · 07:00J. Mejzlik2.209111061M. Vorel1.6111312113
M. Vorel10
LSep 7 · 09:09M. Vorel1.67138111172O. Plyska2.10151188113LSep 7 · 08:00O. Plyska2.101151213113M. Vorel1.67511141192LSep 7 · 07:00J. Mejzlik2.001091111113M. Vorel1.7312119982LSep 7 · 05:30P. Hlina1.5311811113M. Vorel2.38511751LSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk1.83119116133M. Vorel1.83611711112WSep 4 · 07:30M. Snizek2.2061151172M. Vorel1.61117118113WSep 4 · 07:00M. Vorel1.3681111113P. Moulis3.00113531WSep 4 · 06:00M. Vorel1.836111110113J. Puk1.8311891252LSep 2 · 16:28M. Vorel2.109870P. Hlina1.671111113WAug 19 · 07:00J. Mejzlik2.209111061M. Vorel1.6111312113
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