TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13091520
Played Sep 7Finished
Martin Vorel
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1315811118118711
Oleh Plyska
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingMartin Vorel above · Oleh Plyska below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 103 set 5, 7-11
103 points played in total.
H2H Martin Vorel 55–53 Oleh Plyska Oleh Plyska has won 53 of their 108 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Plyska beat Vorel 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vorel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plyska form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVorel 1.67 / Plyska 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vorel)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13091520
Vorel1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 105 of 183
Up 2–0, closes it90% 44 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it78% 76 of 98
Plyska2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog42% won 68 of 162
Down 0–1, comes back26% 22 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVorel6wins
AwayPlyska4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderVorel leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVorel57.1%4 of 7
AwayPlyska33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vorel7Plyska3n = 10Vorel took 7 of 10
S2Vorel6Plyska4n = 10Vorel took 6 of 10
S3Vorel3Plyska7n = 10Plyska took 7 of 10
S4Vorel6Plyska3n = 9Vorel took 6 of 9
S5Vorel3Plyska3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVorelPlyskaV − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.240.3+1.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVorelPlyskaBasisWin rate · lifetime409 / 793 vs 340 / 68951.6%49.4%409 / 793 vs 340 / 689Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VorelVorel 1.67/Plyska 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vorel · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Plyska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 08:00M. Vorel—511141192O. Plyska—1151213113
WJul 29 · 13:03M. Vorel—11116113O. Plyska—571191
LJul 29 · 11:00M. Vorel—117981O. Plyska—71111113
WJul 27 · 12:00M. Vorel—111011113O. Plyska—412881
WJul 21 · 11:00M. Vorel—311711113O. Plyska—11811632
WJul 3 · 05:30M. Vorel—1111113O. Plyska—6760
LJun 30 · 10:45M. Vorel—11781162O. Plyska—711117113
WJun 18 · 08:33M. Vorel—128411113O. Plyska—101111792
LJun 18 · 07:30M. Vorel—11119462O. Plyska—781111113
WJun 16 · 06:00M. Vorel—711911113O. Plyska—11911962
M. Vorel10
LSep 7 · 08:00O. Plyska2.101151213113M. Vorel1.67511141192LSep 7 · 07:00J. Mejzlik2.001091111113M. Vorel1.7312119982LSep 7 · 05:30P. Hlina1.5311811113M. Vorel2.38511751LSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk1.83119116133M. Vorel1.83611711112WSep 4 · 07:30M. Snizek2.2061151172M. Vorel1.61117118113WSep 4 · 07:00M. Vorel1.3681111113P. Moulis3.00113531WSep 4 · 06:00M. Vorel1.836111110113J. Puk1.8311891252LSep 2 · 16:28M. Vorel2.109870P. Hlina1.671111113LSep 2 · 16:00M. Vorel1.7377120L. Tuma2.001111143LSep 2 · 14:30P. Hlina1.8071111113M. Vorel1.91118211
O. Plyska10
WSep 7 · 08:00O. Plyska2.101151213113M. Vorel1.67511141192LSep 7 · 06:30P. Hlina1.831241211113O. Plyska1.83141110962LSep 7 · 06:00J. Mejzlik1.9191111113O. Plyska1.80115971WSep 3 · 12:54O. Plyska1.8311119113M. Vana1.83771171WSep 3 · 11:45O. Plyska1.67117111113J. Hanacek2.1041181192LSep 3 · 10:15J. Marhol1.6110121112143O. Plyska2.201214910122WSep 3 · 09:45M. Vana1.801186101O. Plyska1.9181111123LSep 2 · 08:33O. Plyska1.9111101111122M. Vana1.80812913143WSep 2 · 07:30M. Vana1.8011691162O. Plyska1.91711113113WSep 2 · 07:00O. Plyska2.1011611113T. Bertho1.67911881
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