TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12456662
Played Aug 19Finished
Jakub Mejzlik
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111131012611––
Martin Vorel
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:40 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeMartin Vorel to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Mejzlik above · Martin Vorel below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 73 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Martin Vorel at 57.7%
73 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Mejzlik 1–3 Martin Vorel Jakub Mejzlik has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:40What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vorel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Vorel
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mejzlik 1385 vs Vorel 1394
Vorel
Correct
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mejzlik 60% vs Vorel 20%
Mejzlik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mejzlik 30% vs Vorel 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mejzlik +1 · Vorel -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Vorel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorel form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMejzlik 2.20 / Vorel 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Vorel)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12456662
Mejzlik2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 38 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back18% 7 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 20
Vorel1.61
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 97 of 178
Up 2–0, closes it90% 43 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it77% 72 of 93
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMejzlik1wins
AwayVorel3wins
2 of 4 to a deciderVorel leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMejzlikn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayVorel100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mejzlik1Vorel3n = 4Vorel took 3 of 4
S2Mejzlik3Vorel1n = 4Mejzlik took 3 of 4
S3Mejzlik0Vorel4n = 4Vorel took 4 of 4
S4Mejzlik2Vorel2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricMejzlikVorelM − VBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match41.243.5−2.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMejzlikVorelBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 307 vs 416 / 80248.2%51.9%148 / 307 vs 416 / 802Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VorelMejzlik 2.20/Vorel 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Vorel · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vorel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 19 · 07:00J. Mejzlik—9111061M. Vorel—11312113
WAug 10 · 14:30J. Mejzlik—136811113M. Vorel—111111572
LMay 15 · 12:00J. Mejzlik—10116101M. Vorel—12711123
LJan 14 · 09:00J. Mejzlik—101141172M. Vorel—129117113
J. Mejzlik10
LSep 7 · 08:38J. Mejzlik2.1010111151P. Hlina1.6712313113WSep 7 · 07:30P. Hlina1.5311118652J. Mejzlik2.38681111113WSep 7 · 07:00J. Mejzlik2.001091111113M. Vorel1.7312119982WSep 7 · 06:00J. Mejzlik1.9191111113O. Plyska1.80115971LAug 25 · 08:33J. Mejzlik1.917750P. Hlina1.801111113LAug 25 · 07:30P. Hlina2.20911119133J. Mejzlik1.61115611112WAug 25 · 07:00J. Mejzlik2.3811911113M. Vorel1.53411761WAug 25 · 06:00J. Mejzlik1.738111111123J. Puk2.00116138102LAug 19 · 08:37J. Mejzlik3.759790L. Tuma1.251111113WAug 19 · 07:30L. Tuma2.2511711101J. Mejzlik1.5713119123
M. Vorel10
LSep 7 · 08:00O. Plyska2.101151213113M. Vorel1.67511141192LSep 7 · 07:00J. Mejzlik2.001091111113M. Vorel1.7312119982LSep 7 · 05:30P. Hlina1.5311811113M. Vorel2.38511751LSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk1.83119116133M. Vorel1.83611711112WSep 4 · 07:30M. Snizek2.2061151172M. Vorel1.61117118113WSep 4 · 07:00M. Vorel1.3681111113P. Moulis3.00113531WSep 4 · 06:00M. Vorel1.836111110113J. Puk1.8311891252LSep 2 · 16:28M. Vorel2.109870P. Hlina1.671111113LSep 2 · 16:00M. Vorel1.7377120L. Tuma2.001111143LAug 25 · 07:00J. Mejzlik2.3811911113M. Vorel1.53411761
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