TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043765
Played Aug 30Finished
Viktor Kucala
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119211611811––
David Sabuka
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeViktor Kucala to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingViktor Kucala above · David Sabuka below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 69 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Viktor Kucala at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Viktor Kucala 4–1 David Sabuka David Sabuka has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:43What took a side1 for · 5 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Sabuka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Kucala
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kucala 1207 vs Sabuka 1320
Sabuka
Correct
both rated, 113 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kucala 60% vs Sabuka 100%
Sabuka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kucala 50% vs Sabuka 70%
Sabuka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kucala -2 · Sabuka +5
Sabuka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kucala)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sabuka form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKucala 1.83 / Sabuka 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kucala)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13043765
Kucala1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Sabuka1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKucala4wins
AwaySabuka1wins
1 of 5 to a deciderKucala leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKucala100%3 of 3
AwaySabukan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kucala3Sabuka2n = 5Kucala took 3 of 5
S2Kucala4Sabuka1n = 5Kucala took 4 of 5
S3Kucala2Sabuka3n = 5Sabuka took 3 of 5
S4Kucala3Sabuka2n = 5Kucala took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home360%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricKucalaSabukaK − SBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match42.840.0+2.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKucalaSabukaBasisWin rate · lifetime126 / 274 vs 242 / 52546%46.1%126 / 274 vs 242 / 525Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KucalaKucala 1.83/Sabuka 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kucala · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sabuka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 24 · 09:30V. Kucala—11119143D. Sabuka—9411121
WAug 15 · 16:39V. Kucala—12811113D. Sabuka—1011851
WAug 15 · 15:30V. Kucala—51111113D. Sabuka—119591
LMay 24 · 19:00V. Kucala—911941D. Sabuka—11911113
WMay 17 · 19:15V. Kucala—1111914113D. Sabuka—99111692
V. Kucala10
WAug 31 · 12:34J. Krejcik1.3641141162V. Kucala3.00119118113WAug 31 · 11:30V. Kucala2.20111011113D. Sabuka1.61912141LAug 31 · 10:30V. Kucala2.63111111362J. Krejcik1.44138711113LAug 31 · 09:30V. Kucala2.25511991J. Seeman1.5711811113LAug 30 · 12:39J. Seeman1.57691111113V. Kucala2.2511116582LAug 30 · 11:30V. Kucala2.505360P. Moulis1.501111113LAug 30 · 09:30V. Kucala2.0071280J. Seeman1.731114113LAug 24 · 12:58J. Krejcik2.001111113V. Kucala1.734370WAug 24 · 11:30V. Kucala1.731511123V. Kilian2.00135100WAug 24 · 10:30V. Kucala2.201311113J. Krejcik1.6111880
D. Sabuka10
WSep 1 · 08:43D. Sabuka1.221111113A. Skyba4.007940LSep 1 · 08:00M. Cmil1.731111114143D. Sabuka2.00613911122WSep 1 · 07:00A. Skyba3.751111791D. Sabuka1.2513611113LSep 1 · 05:30M. Cervenka4.5011411133D. Sabuka1.178119111WAug 31 · 13:03J. Seeman1.9175111112D. Sabuka1.80111186113LAug 31 · 11:30V. Kucala2.20111011113D. Sabuka1.61912141LAug 31 · 11:00D. Sabuka1.678117111J. Seeman2.1011711133WAug 31 · 10:00D. Sabuka2.501111123J. Krejcik1.5037100LAug 30 · 13:09D. Sabuka2.5088111162P. Moulis1.50111185113WAug 30 · 12:00D. Sabuka1.67111175143J. Seeman2.10871111122
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