TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022662
Played Aug 27Finished
David Sabuka
Home
1.29
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117111114––––
Miroslav Cervenka
Away
3.50
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:52 and never touched — 73.9% is still 73.9%
Graded at full timeDavid Sabuka to win
73.9%
73.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Sabuka above · Miroslav Cervenka below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-1
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 45 set 3, 11-4 — our read held David Sabuka at 73.9%
45 points played in total.
H2H David Sabuka 3–1 Miroslav Cervenka Miroslav Cervenka has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:52What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Sabuka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Sabuka
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sabuka 1309 vs Cervenka 1171
Sabuka
Correct
both rated, 138 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sabuka 80% vs Cervenka 0%
Sabuka
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sabuka 60% vs Cervenka 20%
Sabuka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sabuka +3 · Cervenka -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Sabuka) · live re-read · sealed at 74% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cervenka form (0%) is below what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSabuka 1.28 / Cervenka 3.50
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Sabuka)-0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13022662
Sabuka1.28
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 58 of 117
Up 2–0, closes it100% 23 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it76% 40 of 53
Cervenka3.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 29 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back23% 12 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSabuka3wins
AwayCervenka1wins
Sabuka leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSabuka100%3 of 3
AwayCervenkan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sabuka3Cervenka1n = 4Sabuka took 3 of 4
S2Sabuka2Cervenka2n = 4split evenly
S3Sabuka3Cervenka1n = 4Sabuka took 3 of 4
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricSabukaCervenkaS − CBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match33.225.2+8.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSabukaCervenkaBasisWin rate · lifetime243 / 528 vs 86 / 22146%38.9%243 / 528 vs 86 / 221Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.535.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SabukaSabuka 1.28/Cervenka 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.1%
Sabuka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sabuka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 27 · 11:30D. Sabuka—1111113M. Cervenka—7140
WAug 5 · 07:00D. Sabuka—111011113M. Cervenka—812861
LAug 2 · 08:38D. Sabuka—103110M. Cervenka—1211133
WAug 2 · 07:30D. Sabuka—1111113M. Cervenka—7930
D. Sabuka10
WSep 1 · 08:43D. Sabuka1.221111113A. Skyba4.007940LSep 1 · 08:00M. Cmil1.731111114143D. Sabuka2.00613911122WSep 1 · 07:00A. Skyba3.751111791D. Sabuka1.2513611113LSep 1 · 05:30M. Cervenka4.5011411133D. Sabuka1.178119111WAug 31 · 13:03J. Seeman1.9175111112D. Sabuka1.80111186113LAug 31 · 11:30V. Kucala2.20111011113D. Sabuka1.61912141LAug 31 · 11:00D. Sabuka1.678117111J. Seeman2.1011711133WAug 31 · 10:00D. Sabuka2.501111123J. Krejcik1.5037100LAug 30 · 13:09D. Sabuka2.5088111162P. Moulis1.50111185113WAug 30 · 12:00D. Sabuka1.67111175143J. Seeman2.10871111122
M. Cervenka10
WSep 1 · 09:14M. Cmil1.61971171M. Cervenka2.2011117113LSep 1 · 07:30M. Cervenka3.255660A. Skyba1.331111113WSep 1 · 06:30M. Cervenka2.6311911133M. Cmil1.446114111WSep 1 · 05:30M. Cervenka4.5011411133D. Sabuka1.178119111WAug 27 · 12:28V. Kilian1.53581881M. Cervenka2.38111116113LAug 27 · 11:00M. Cervenka3.251151241A. Skyba1.3351114113LAug 27 · 10:00M. Cervenka2.101211581V. Kilian1.6714611113LAug 14 · 08:33J. Krejcik1.22614711113M. Cervenka4.00111211682LAug 14 · 07:30M. Cervenka2.25116871J. Krejcik1.5771111113LAug 14 · 06:30M. Cervenka2.108680M. Holub1.671111113
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