TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12384728
Played Aug 9Finished
Ondrej Karpisek
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1138111012411––
Jan Botka
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 9Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:16 and never touched — 67.8% is still 67.8%
Graded at full timeOndrej Karpisek to win
67.8%
67.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOndrej Karpisek above · Jan Botka below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 70 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Ondrej Karpisek at 67.8%
70 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Karpisek 0–1 Jan Botka Ondrej Karpisek has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:16What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Karpisek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Karpisek 1486 vs Botka 1366
Karpisek
Wrong
both rated, 121 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpisek 40% vs Botka 0%
Karpisek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpisek 30% vs Botka 10%
Karpisek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpisek +1 · Botka -5
Botka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Karpisek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Botka form (0%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpisek 1.53 / Botka 2.38
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Karpisek)+7.0pp
Setka Cup · #12384728
Karpisek1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite61% won 31 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it71% 20 of 28
Botka2.38
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 9
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 16 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back23% 5 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKarpisek0wins
AwayBotka1wins
Botka leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricKarpisekBotkaK − BBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match23.035.0−12.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpisekBotkaBasisWin rate · lifetime235 / 492 vs 37 / 8947.8%41.6%235 / 492 vs 37 / 89Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarpisekKarpisek 1.53/Botka 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.8%
Karpisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Botka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LMay 24 · 20:00O. Karpisek—75110J. Botka—1111133
O. Karpisek10
LAug 31 · 21:09L. Hendrych1.7311129113O. Karpisek2.004101171LAug 31 · 20:00O. Karpisek1.80113571L. Hendrych1.91111111113LAug 31 · 18:30T. Stejskal2.631111113O. Karpisek1.449460LAug 31 · 18:00M. Vana1.8311119113O. Karpisek1.83641181LAug 17 · 20:33O. Karpisek1.837280J. Tichy1.831111113LAug 17 · 19:30J. Tichy1.91911119113O. Karpisek1.8011781142LAug 17 · 19:00O. Karpisek2.105930P. Hala1.671111113LAug 17 · 18:00O. Karpisek1.91135100S. Kalensky1.801511123WAug 14 · 16:14J. Juppa1.5311661192O. Karpisek2.38711119113LAug 14 · 15:15V. Lopata1.53811611113O. Karpisek2.3811411962
J. Botka10
WAug 27 · 20:38J. Botka1.441211123K. Jirousek2.63104100WAug 27 · 19:30K. Jirousek2.0011380J. Botka1.731311113WAug 27 · 19:00J. Botka2.00111353113K. Farsky1.73711111162WAug 27 · 18:00J. Botka1.611081111113J. Pina2.2012119792LAug 9 · 20:34M. Vorel2.2561113113J. Botka1.571121171LAug 9 · 19:00J. Botka1.5011117962M. Vorel2.50781111113LAug 9 · 18:00J. Botka2.38111111892M. Bruk1.53313911113LAug 8 · 08:44Z. Kuksa1.40121112113J. Botka2.751071471LAug 8 · 07:45J. Botka2.208390Z. Kuksa1.611111113LAug 8 · 06:15M. Taranko1.671111112113J. Botka2.10131191052
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