TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12378938
Played Aug 8Finished
Mikhail Taranko
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11131111191210115
Jan Botka
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:11 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeMikhail Taranko to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMikhail Taranko above · Jan Botka below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 94 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Mikhail Taranko at 55.8%
94 points played in total.
H2H Mikhail Taranko 2–1 Jan Botka Jan Botka has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:11What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Taranko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Taranko 1520 vs Botka 1382
Taranko
Correct
both rated, 138 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Taranko 60% vs Botka 20%
Taranko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Taranko 60% vs Botka 20%
Taranko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Taranko +3 · Botka -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Taranko) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Botka form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTaranko 1.67 / Botka 2.10
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Taranko)+7.0pp
Setka Cup · #12378938
Taranko1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite47% won 16 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it73% 11 of 15
Botka2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 17 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back26% 6 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeTaranko2wins
AwayBotka1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderTaranko leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTarankon = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayBotka33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Taranko0Botka3n = 3Botka took 3 of 3
S2Taranko1Botka2n = 3Botka took 2 of 3
S3Taranko2Botka1n = 3Taranko took 2 of 3
S4Taranko2Botka1n = 3Taranko took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home267%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricTarankoBotkaT − BBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match40.747.7−7.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTarankoBotkaBasisWin rate · lifetime76 / 159 vs 38 / 9147.8%41.8%76 / 159 vs 38 / 91Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TarankoTaranko 1.67/Botka 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.8%
Taranko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Taranko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 8 · 06:15M. Taranko—1111112113J. Botka—131191052
WAug 1 · 08:29M. Taranko—481611113J. Botka—111114972
LAug 1 · 05:45M. Taranko—912321J. Botka—111011113
M. Taranko10
LSep 6 · 08:29L. Stoces1.221112113M. Taranko4.0051070LSep 6 · 07:15M. Taranko1.917860T. Hanke1.801111113WSep 6 · 06:15M. Taranko2.504111410143L. Stoces1.501191212122LSep 6 · 05:15M. Taranko2.104960D. Brichacek1.671111113LAug 29 · 08:23L. Hendrych2.101611911113M. Taranko1.67146111392WAug 29 · 07:15M. Taranko1.80121299113L. Hendrych1.911010111162WAug 29 · 06:15M. Taranko1.53311114113F. Kubos2.3811771172WAug 29 · 05:15M. Taranko2.101191211123T. Bertho1.67911146102WAug 22 · 08:39J. Snr2.63511991M. Taranko1.4411711113LAug 22 · 07:15M. Taranko1.361111119142J. Snr3.00613811163
J. Botka10
WAug 27 · 20:38J. Botka1.441211123K. Jirousek2.63104100WAug 27 · 19:30K. Jirousek2.0011380J. Botka1.731311113WAug 27 · 19:00J. Botka2.00111353113K. Farsky1.73711111162WAug 27 · 18:00J. Botka1.611081111113J. Pina2.2012119792LAug 9 · 20:34M. Vorel2.2561113113J. Botka1.571121171WAug 9 · 19:30O. Karpisek1.531181041J. Botka2.3831112113LAug 9 · 19:00J. Botka1.5011117962M. Vorel2.50781111113LAug 9 · 18:00J. Botka2.38111111892M. Bruk1.53313911113LAug 8 · 08:44Z. Kuksa1.40121112113J. Botka2.751071471LAug 8 · 07:45J. Botka2.208390Z. Kuksa1.611111113
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