TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13044592
Played Aug 30Finished
Marian Melisek
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
61111812106111412
Petr Abraham
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:36 and never touched — 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timePetr Abraham to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMarian Melisek above · Petr Abraham below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 101 set 5, 14-12 — our read held Petr Abraham at 67.9%
101 points played in total.
H2H Marian Melisek 2–6 Petr Abraham Marian Melisek has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:36What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Abraham
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Abraham
Wrong
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melisek 1387 vs Abraham 1509
Abraham
Wrong
both rated, 122 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melisek 60% vs Abraham 100%
Abraham
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melisek 40% vs Abraham 80%
Abraham
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melisek -2 · Abraham +5
Abraham
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Abraham) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Abraham form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelisek 2.75 / Abraham 1.40
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Abraham)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13044592
Melisek2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 61 of 142
Down 0–1, comes back23% 16 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 28
Abraham1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 58 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it97% 33 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it85% 44 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMelisek2wins
AwayAbraham6wins
1 of 8 to a deciderAbraham leads 6–2, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelisek33.3%1 of 3
AwayAbraham80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melisek3Abraham5n = 8Abraham took 5 of 8
S2Melisek4Abraham4n = 8split evenly
S3Melisek1Abraham7n = 8Abraham took 7 of 8
S4Melisek1Abraham5n = 6Abraham took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away450%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricMelisekAbrahamM − ABasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match34.440.8−6.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelisekAbrahamBasisWin rate · lifetime222 / 464 vs 211 / 42047.8%50.2%222 / 464 vs 211 / 420Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AbrahamMelisek 2.75/Abraham 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.7%
Abraham · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Melisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LJun 5 · 17:03M. Melisek—61390P. Abraham—1115113
LJun 5 · 14:00M. Melisek—1111751P. Abraham—13711113
LMay 28 · 16:43M. Melisek—1112261P. Abraham—61411113
WMay 28 · 13:15M. Melisek—5111110113P. Abraham—11681272
LMay 17 · 15:15M. Melisek—91670P. Abraham—1118113
WMay 16 · 13:45M. Melisek—11139113P. Abraham—6111191
LJul 2 · 13:30M. Melisek—158271P. Abraham—131111113
LJun 25 · 13:30M. Melisek—411651P. Abraham—11511113
M. Melisek10
WSep 1 · 12:38M. Melisek1.6191211113J. Jnr2.201110871LSep 1 · 12:00M. Melisek2.2011811842M. Vorel1.61511311113LSep 1 · 10:30R. Slunecko1.57911911113M. Melisek2.2511911832WSep 1 · 10:00J. Jnr1.735890M. Melisek2.001111113LAug 30 · 16:33J. Hanacek1.53891211113M. Melisek2.38111110622LAug 30 · 14:30M. Melisek2.50117761A. Dvoracek1.5021111113LAug 30 · 13:30M. Melisek2.20612761J. Hanacek1.61111011113WAug 28 · 12:54M. Vorel1.5311581282M. Melisek2.384111110113WAug 28 · 11:15J. Blazek1.8311161152M. Melisek1.83119118113WAug 28 · 10:45M. Melisek2.3811712113J. Hanacek1.535111081
P. Abraham10
WAug 30 · 17:05A. Dvoracek3.007960P. Abraham1.361111103WAug 30 · 15:00P. Abraham2.631112113J. Hanacek1.4451030WAug 30 · 14:00P. Abraham1.3611101211113A. Dvoracek3.0051214882WAug 26 · 17:00J. Marhol1.83119581P. Abraham1.8351111113WAug 26 · 16:00P. Abraham1.91114117113J. Marhol1.8061141132WAug 26 · 14:30V. Toman1.677111291P. Abraham2.10111310113LAug 26 · 14:00F. Schmidtmayer1.441111113P. Abraham2.639390WAug 23 · 08:59P. Abraham1.2511116113J. Pina3.75591191WAug 23 · 08:00P. Hlina2.753290P. Abraham1.401111113LAug 23 · 07:00A. Dvoracek3.75119116113P. Abraham1.2581191152
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.