TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055380
Played Sep 1Finished
Jakub Dufek Jnr
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511811911––––
Marian Melisek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Dufek Jnr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Dufek Jnr above · Marian Melisek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 55 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Jakub Dufek Jnr at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Dufek Jnr 3–4 Marian Melisek Jakub Dufek Jnr has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:38What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jnr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1315 vs Melisek 1392
Melisek
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 20% vs Melisek 40%
Melisek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 30% vs Melisek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr -1 · Melisek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jnr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.73 / Melisek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jnr)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13055380
Jnr1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 91 of 143
Up 2–0, closes it92% 44 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it73% 64 of 88
Melisek2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 62 of 146
Down 0–1, comes back24% 17 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeJnr3wins
AwayMelisek4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderMelisek leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr75%3 of 4
AwayMelisek100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr4Melisek3n = 7Jnr took 4 of 7
S2Jnr3Melisek4n = 7Melisek took 4 of 7
S3Jnr3Melisek4n = 7Melisek took 4 of 7
S4Jnr2Melisek3n = 5Melisek took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricJnrMelisekJ − MBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match37.038.7−1.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrMelisekBasisWin rate · lifetime238 / 461 vs 222 / 46251.6%48.1%238 / 461 vs 222 / 462Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrJnr 1.73/Melisek 2.00
Miss
What we said
54%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Melisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 18 · 12:29J. Jnr—11129113M. Melisek—8101181
LAug 18 · 09:30J. Jnr—111181042M. Melisek—991112113
LAug 16 · 14:00J. Jnr—9101181M. Melisek—11129113
LAug 14 · 14:00J. Jnr—891191M. Melisek—11114113
WJul 22 · 09:30J. Jnr—113712113M. Melisek—811111092
LJul 11 · 16:29J. Jnr—7750M. Melisek—1111113
WJul 11 · 15:30J. Jnr—1111123M. Melisek—64100
J. Jnr10
LSep 3 · 12:58J. Seeman2.0011119113J. Jnr1.73681171LSep 3 · 12:00J. Jnr1.5791090J. Seeman2.251112113LSep 3 · 10:30J. Blazek2.501071111113J. Jnr1.5012116972LSep 3 · 10:00J. Krejcik1.611111410153J. Jnr2.20531112132LSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub2.001113113J. Jnr1.7391170WSep 2 · 11:30P. Cizek2.104680J. Jnr1.671111113WSep 2 · 11:00J. Jnr1.7311118113P. Moulis2.00971151WSep 2 · 10:00J. Jnr1.8011911113M. Holub1.91911791LSep 1 · 12:38M. Melisek1.6191211113J. Jnr2.201110871LSep 1 · 11:30R. Slunecko1.6711911113J. Jnr2.10911491
M. Melisek10
WSep 1 · 12:38M. Melisek1.6191211113J. Jnr2.201110871LSep 1 · 12:00M. Melisek2.2011811842M. Vorel1.61511311113LSep 1 · 10:30R. Slunecko1.57911911113M. Melisek2.2511911832LAug 30 · 16:33J. Hanacek1.53891211113M. Melisek2.38111110622WAug 30 · 15:30M. Melisek2.75611126143P. Abraham1.401181011122LAug 30 · 14:30M. Melisek2.50117761A. Dvoracek1.5021111113LAug 30 · 13:30M. Melisek2.20612761J. Hanacek1.61111011113WAug 28 · 12:54M. Vorel1.5311581282M. Melisek2.384111110113WAug 28 · 11:15J. Blazek1.8311161152M. Melisek1.83119118113WAug 28 · 10:45M. Melisek2.3811712113J. Hanacek1.535111081
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