TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13044713
Played Aug 30Finished
Marian Melisek
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111210711611––
Josef Hanacek
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:05 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeJosef Hanacek to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarian Melisek above · Josef Hanacek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 74 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Josef Hanacek at 58.9%
74 points played in total.
H2H Marian Melisek 13–16 Josef Hanacek Marian Melisek has won 13 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:05What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Hanacek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-16 in 29
Hanacek
Correct
gap of 3 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melisek 1416 vs Hanacek 1497
Hanacek
Correct
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melisek 60% vs Hanacek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melisek 40% vs Hanacek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melisek +3 · Hanacek -1
Melisek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Hanacek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melisek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelisek 2.20 / Hanacek 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Hanacek)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13044713
Melisek2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 61 of 142
Down 0–1, comes back23% 16 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 28
Hanacek1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 66 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it90% 26 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it83% 45 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelisek4wins
AwayHanacek6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHanacek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelisek66.7%4 of 6
AwayHanacek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melisek6Hanacek4n = 10Melisek took 6 of 10
S2Melisek5Hanacek5n = 10split evenly
S3Melisek3Hanacek7n = 10Hanacek took 7 of 10
S4Melisek3Hanacek7n = 10Hanacek took 7 of 10
S5Melisek3Hanacek2n = 5Melisek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelisekHanacekM − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.443.8−2.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelisekHanacekBasisWin rate · lifetime222 / 462 vs 221 / 42248.1%52.4%222 / 462 vs 221 / 422Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HanacekMelisek 2.20/Hanacek 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Hanacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hanacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 18 · 11:30M. Melisek—815661J. Hanacek—111311113
WAug 8 · 15:30M. Melisek—111011103J. Hanacek—712741
LAug 7 · 09:30M. Melisek—118111052J. Hanacek—511912113
LAug 5 · 13:30M. Melisek—881191J. Hanacek—11117113
LAug 3 · 14:00M. Melisek—116941J. Hanacek—61111113
LJul 15 · 14:00M. Melisek—911513102J. Hanacek—1151111123
LJun 16 · 09:15M. Melisek—2111691J. Hanacek—11718113
WJun 13 · 16:29M. Melisek—111156113J. Hanacek—88111152
WJun 13 · 15:30M. Melisek—125712113J. Hanacek—1011111072
WJun 8 · 09:30M. Melisek—1111115113J. Hanacek—76131192
M. Melisek10
WSep 1 · 12:38M. Melisek1.6191211113J. Jnr2.201110871LSep 1 · 12:00M. Melisek2.2011811842M. Vorel1.61511311113LSep 1 · 10:30R. Slunecko1.57911911113M. Melisek2.2511911832WSep 1 · 10:00J. Jnr1.735890M. Melisek2.001111113LAug 30 · 16:33J. Hanacek1.53891211113M. Melisek2.38111110622WAug 30 · 15:30M. Melisek2.75611126143P. Abraham1.401181011122LAug 30 · 14:30M. Melisek2.50117761A. Dvoracek1.5021111113WAug 28 · 12:54M. Vorel1.5311581282M. Melisek2.384111110113WAug 28 · 11:15J. Blazek1.8311161152M. Melisek1.83119118113WAug 28 · 10:45M. Melisek2.3811712113J. Hanacek1.535111081
J. Hanacek10
WSep 5 · 16:29J. Hanacek4.00116117113L. Hendrych1.2251141152LSep 5 · 16:00F. Kubos1.801111103J. Hanacek1.915870LSep 5 · 13:30L. Hendrych1.251111113J. Hanacek3.759690LSep 3 · 12:23J. Hanacek2.201011110J. Marhol1.611213133LSep 3 · 11:45O. Plyska1.67117111113J. Hanacek2.1041181192LSep 3 · 10:45M. Vana1.501112114113J. Hanacek2.5091471192WSep 3 · 09:15J. Marhol1.57121211982J. Hanacek2.251014711113LSep 2 · 09:03T. Bertho1.61117139113J. Hanacek2.20911111162WAug 30 · 16:33J. Hanacek1.53891211113M. Melisek2.38111110622LAug 28 · 10:45M. Melisek2.3811712113J. Hanacek1.535111081
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