TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13015168
Played Aug 26Finished
Frantisek Schmidtmayer
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119113119––––
Petr Abraham
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:50 and never touched — 67.6% is still 67.6%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Schmidtmayer to win
67.6%
67.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFrantisek Schmidtmayer above · Petr Abraham below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 54 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Frantisek Schmidtmayer at 67.6%
54 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Schmidtmayer 9–5 Petr Abraham Petr Abraham has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:50What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Schmidtmayer
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-5 in 14
Schmidtmayer
Correct
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schmidtmayer 1478 vs Abraham 1449
Schmidtmayer
Correct
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schmidtmayer 40% vs Abraham 80%
Abraham
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schmidtmayer 50% vs Abraham 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Schmidtmayer -1 · Abraham +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Schmidtmayer)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Abraham form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchmidtmayer 1.44 / Abraham 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Schmidtmayer)+3.1pp
Setka Cup · #13015168
Schmidtmayer1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 68 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it74% 52 of 70
Abraham2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog29% won 22 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back14% 7 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSchmidtmayer9wins
AwayAbraham1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSchmidtmayer leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchmidtmayer90%9 of 10
AwayAbrahamn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schmidtmayer10Abraham0n = 10Schmidtmayer took 10 of 10
S2Schmidtmayer6Abraham4n = 10Schmidtmayer took 6 of 10
S3Schmidtmayer8Abraham2n = 10Schmidtmayer took 8 of 10
S4Schmidtmayer3Abraham1n = 4Schmidtmayer took 3 of 4
S5Schmidtmayer2Abraham1n = 3Schmidtmayer took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSchmidtmayerAbrahamS − ABasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set100+10of 10Avg pointsper match38.531.7+6.8per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchmidtmayerAbrahamBasisWin rate · lifetime221 / 463 vs 206 / 41447.7%49.8%221 / 463 vs 206 / 414Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SchmidtmayerSchmidtmayer 1.44/Abraham 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.6%
Schmidtmayer · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Schmidtmayer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 23 · 15:30F. Schmidtmayer—11811163P. Abraham—9118141
WMar 17 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer—1111113P. Abraham—9650
WFeb 21 · 11:30F. Schmidtmayer—1111113P. Abraham—8690
WDec 26 · 12:15F. Schmidtmayer—1111911113P. Abraham—91311462
WDec 21 · 10:15F. Schmidtmayer—1211113P. Abraham—10670
WNov 22 · 15:30F. Schmidtmayer—111031143P. Abraham—91211722
LMay 22 · 17:05F. Schmidtmayer—11311482P. Abraham—811711113
WMay 22 · 15:00F. Schmidtmayer—1117133P. Abraham—915110
WApr 8 · 15:30F. Schmidtmayer—1111113P. Abraham—8570
WMar 31 · 16:00F. Schmidtmayer—1411113P. Abraham—12370
F. Schmidtmayer10
LSep 1 · 16:39P. Kotrbacek1.7311101011123F. Schmidtmayer2.00912126102LSep 1 · 15:30F. Schmidtmayer2.759970T. Bertho1.401111113LSep 1 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer1.831411581P. Kotrbacek1.8316711113LSep 1 · 13:30F. Schmidtmayer1.83991391K. Farsky1.83111111113LAug 28 · 16:45P. Kotrbacek2.38913911113F. Schmidtmayer1.53111111682LAug 28 · 15:30F. Schmidtmayer2.1084111262M. Vana1.671111310113WAug 28 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer1.808111111113P. Kotrbacek1.9111481372LAug 28 · 13:30F. Schmidtmayer1.7381290A. Dvoracek2.001114113LAug 26 · 16:29F. Schmidtmayer2.6371110111V. Toman1.4411612133LAug 26 · 15:30V. Toman1.671111113F. Schmidtmayer2.105860
P. Abraham10
WAug 30 · 17:05A. Dvoracek3.007960P. Abraham1.361111103LAug 30 · 15:30M. Melisek2.75611126143P. Abraham1.401181011122WAug 30 · 15:00P. Abraham2.631112113J. Hanacek1.4451030WAug 30 · 14:00P. Abraham1.3611101211113A. Dvoracek3.0051214882WAug 26 · 17:00J. Marhol1.83119581P. Abraham1.8351111113WAug 26 · 16:00P. Abraham1.91114117113J. Marhol1.8061141132WAug 26 · 14:30V. Toman1.677111291P. Abraham2.10111310113WAug 23 · 08:59P. Abraham1.2511116113J. Pina3.75591191WAug 23 · 08:00P. Hlina2.753290P. Abraham1.401111113LAug 23 · 07:00A. Dvoracek3.75119116113P. Abraham1.2581191152
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