TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12267001
Played Jul 20Finished
Vit Kilian
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1214117811911––
Miroslav Cervenka
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:57 and never touched — 66.8% is still 66.8%
Graded at full timeVit Kilian to win
66.8%
66.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVit Kilian above · Miroslav Cervenka below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 83 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Vit Kilian at 66.8%
83 points played in total.
H2H Vit Kilian 7–1 Miroslav Cervenka Miroslav Cervenka has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:57What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kilian
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-1 in 8
Kilian
Wrong
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kilian 1210 vs Cervenka 1196
Kilian
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kilian 20% vs Cervenka 0%
Kilian
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kilian 20% vs Cervenka 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kilian -1 · Cervenka -5
Cervenka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Kilian)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cervenka form (0%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKilian 1.53 / Cervenka 2.38
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Kilian)+6.0pp
Setka Cup · #12267001
Kilian1.53
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite42% won 13 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it83% 5 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it50% 8 of 16
Cervenka2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 28 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back23% 12 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back12% 4 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKilian7wins
AwayCervenka1wins
4 of 8 to a deciderKilian leads 7–1, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKilian100%6 of 6
AwayCervenkan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kilian6Cervenka2n = 8Kilian took 6 of 8
S2Kilian3Cervenka5n = 8Cervenka took 5 of 8
S3Kilian6Cervenka2n = 8Kilian took 6 of 8
S4Kilian3Cervenka4n = 7Cervenka took 4 of 7
S5Kilian4Cervenka0n = 4Kilian took 4 of 4
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home450%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricKilianCervenkaK − CBasisWins71+6in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match44.238.5+5.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKilianCervenkaBasisWin rate · lifetime99 / 217 vs 79 / 20245.6%39.1%99 / 217 vs 79 / 202Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.435.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KilianKilian 1.53/Cervenka 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.8%
Kilian · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cervenka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WMay 29 · 10:30V. Kilian—1115713113M. Cervenka—513111542
WMay 21 · 13:08V. Kilian—111013113M. Cervenka—9121161
LMay 21 · 12:00V. Kilian—991181M. Cervenka—11118113
WNov 28 · 10:05V. Kilian—1111113M. Cervenka—7650
WNov 28 · 06:45V. Kilian—1110118113M. Cervenka—61281192
WOct 13 · 11:30V. Kilian—1111115113M. Cervenka—61371182
WOct 1 · 12:37V. Kilian—21111113M. Cervenka—117871
WOct 1 · 10:30V. Kilian—117711113M. Cervenka—51111842
V. Kilian10
LAug 27 · 12:28V. Kilian1.53581881M. Cervenka2.38111116113LAug 27 · 12:00V. Kilian1.80711851A. Skyba1.9111811113LAug 27 · 10:30D. Sabuka1.331111113V. Kilian3.259680WAug 27 · 10:00M. Cervenka2.101211581V. Kilian1.6714611113LAug 24 · 12:29D. Sabuka1.53111011113V. Kilian2.38412861LAug 24 · 11:30V. Kucala1.731511123V. Kilian2.00135100LAug 24 · 11:00V. Kilian2.1071211872D. Sabuka1.671110511113LAug 24 · 10:00V. Kilian4.0091411542J. Krejcik1.221112811113WJul 20 · 16:33V. Kilian2.1011711113T. Holomek1.67911971LJul 20 · 15:30T. Holomek1.57911149143V. Kilian2.251171211122
M. Cervenka10
WSep 1 · 09:14M. Cmil1.61971171M. Cervenka2.2011117113LSep 1 · 07:30M. Cervenka3.255660A. Skyba1.331111113WSep 1 · 06:30M. Cervenka2.6311911133M. Cmil1.446114111WSep 1 · 05:30M. Cervenka4.5011411133D. Sabuka1.178119111WAug 27 · 12:28V. Kilian1.53581881M. Cervenka2.38111116113LAug 27 · 11:30D. Sabuka1.281111113M. Cervenka3.507140LAug 27 · 11:00M. Cervenka3.251151241A. Skyba1.3351114113LAug 27 · 10:00M. Cervenka2.101211581V. Kilian1.6714611113LAug 14 · 08:33J. Krejcik1.22614711113M. Cervenka4.00111211682LAug 14 · 07:30M. Cervenka2.25116871J. Krejcik1.5771111113
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