TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022655
Played Aug 27Finished
Vit Kilian
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711118811511––
Antonin Skyba
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVit Kilian to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVit Kilian above · Antonin Skyba below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 72 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Vit Kilian at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Vit Kilian 12–12 Antonin Skyba Dead even across their 24 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:52What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kilian
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-12 in 24
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kilian 1161 vs Skyba 1214
Skyba
Correct
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kilian 20% vs Skyba 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kilian 20% vs Skyba 40%
Skyba
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kilian -1 · Skyba +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kilian)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skyba form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKilian 1.80 / Skyba 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kilian)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13022655
Kilian1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite40% won 6 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it57% 4 of 7
Skyba1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog31% won 25 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back13% 6 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKilian4wins
AwaySkyba6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSkyba leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKilian50%2 of 4
AwaySkyba66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kilian4Skyba6n = 10Skyba took 6 of 10
S2Kilian7Skyba3n = 10Kilian took 7 of 10
S3Kilian3Skyba7n = 10Skyba took 7 of 10
S4Kilian2Skyba6n = 8Skyba took 6 of 8
S5Kilian2Skyba1n = 3Kilian took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKilianSkybaK − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.140.3−4.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKilianSkybaBasisWin rate · lifetime89 / 195 vs 94 / 23345.6%40.3%89 / 195 vs 94 / 233Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.336.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KilianKilian 1.80/Skyba 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kilian · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skyba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 27 · 12:00V. Kilian—711851A. Skyba—11811113
WJun 25 · 12:19V. Kilian—1111113A. Skyba—6690
LJun 25 · 09:45V. Kilian—8940A. Skyba—1111113
WJun 11 · 13:04V. Kilian—14112113A. Skyba—1291171
LJun 11 · 09:30V. Kilian—1311771A. Skyba—15711113
WMar 2 · 10:30V. Kilian—711118113A. Skyba—11991192
LFeb 16 · 10:30V. Kilian—117251A. Skyba—91111113
LFeb 3 · 12:30V. Kilian—1551181A. Skyba—17119113
LJan 19 · 13:00V. Kilian—111111362A. Skyba—891311113
WSep 22 · 13:05V. Kilian—611711113A. Skyba—11511432
V. Kilian10
LAug 27 · 12:28V. Kilian1.53581881M. Cervenka2.38111116113LAug 27 · 10:30D. Sabuka1.331111113V. Kilian3.259680WAug 27 · 10:00M. Cervenka2.101211581V. Kilian1.6714611113LAug 24 · 12:29D. Sabuka1.53111011113V. Kilian2.38412861LAug 24 · 11:30V. Kucala1.731511123V. Kilian2.00135100LAug 24 · 11:00V. Kilian2.1071211872D. Sabuka1.671110511113LAug 24 · 10:00V. Kilian4.0091411542J. Krejcik1.221112811113WJul 20 · 16:33V. Kilian2.1011711113T. Holomek1.67911971LJul 20 · 15:30T. Holomek1.57911149143V. Kilian2.251171211122LJul 20 · 15:00V. Kilian1.531211891M. Cervenka2.3814711113
A. Skyba10
LSep 3 · 09:03L. Krutina2.101111610133A. Skyba1.67971112112WSep 3 · 07:30J. Vrnak2.20961171A. Skyba1.6111115113WSep 3 · 07:00A. Skyba2.381111113L. Krutina1.535670WSep 3 · 06:00A. Skyba2.381411611113M. Cmil1.5316811972LSep 1 · 08:43D. Sabuka1.221111113A. Skyba4.007940WSep 1 · 07:30M. Cervenka3.255660A. Skyba1.331111113LSep 1 · 07:00A. Skyba3.751111791D. Sabuka1.2513611113LSep 1 · 06:00A. Skyba2.50128714102M. Cmil1.5010111112123LAug 27 · 12:59A. Skyba2.7512890D. Sabuka1.401411113WAug 27 · 11:00M. Cervenka3.251151241A. Skyba1.3351114113
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