TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067579
Played Sep 3Finished
Jan Vrnak
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911611115711––
Antonin Skyba
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:19 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeAntonin Skyba to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Vrnak above · Antonin Skyba below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 71 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Antonin Skyba at 58.1%
71 points played in total.
H2H Jan Vrnak 5–6 Antonin Skyba Jan Vrnak has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:19What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Skyba
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vrnak 1146 vs Skyba 1231
Skyba
Correct
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vrnak 0% vs Skyba 60%
Skyba
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vrnak 20% vs Skyba 50%
Skyba
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vrnak -5 · Skyba +2
Vrnak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Skyba)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vrnak form (0%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVrnak 2.20 / Skyba 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Skyba)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13067579
Vrnak2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog32% won 19 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back3% 1 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 21
Skyba1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 22 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it71% 17 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVrnak5wins
AwaySkyba5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVrnak100%5 of 5
AwaySkyba100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vrnak5Skyba5n = 10split evenly
S2Vrnak1Skyba9n = 10Skyba took 9 of 10
S3Vrnak7Skyba3n = 10Vrnak took 7 of 10
S4Vrnak2Skyba4n = 6Skyba took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricVrnakSkybaV − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.535.50.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVrnakSkybaBasisWin rate · lifetime94 / 215 vs 95 / 23843.7%39.9%94 / 215 vs 95 / 238Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkybaVrnak 2.20/Skyba 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Skyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skyba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 07:30J. Vrnak—961171A. Skyba—11115113
LJul 30 · 08:48J. Vrnak—9890A. Skyba—1111113
LJul 30 · 07:30J. Vrnak—871181A. Skyba—11116113
WJun 22 · 07:30J. Vrnak—1111113A. Skyba—8980
LMay 28 · 07:00J. Vrnak—111040A. Skyba—1312113
WMay 21 · 07:30J. Vrnak—11511133A. Skyba—9115111
WMar 26 · 06:45J. Vrnak—11911113A. Skyba—511241
LJan 13 · 10:10J. Vrnak—7940A. Skyba—1111103
WJan 13 · 08:00J. Vrnak—1111125113A. Skyba—913101182
WSep 16 · 06:00J. Vrnak—1110119113A. Skyba—41281182
J. Vrnak10
LSep 3 · 08:34M. Cmil1.50312711113J. Vrnak2.50111011562LSep 3 · 06:30J. Vrnak2.50911771M. Cmil1.5011211113LSep 3 · 05:30J. Vrnak3.401177101L. Krutina1.3041111123LAug 8 · 20:33J. Vrnak3.3051290M. Vydra1.251114113LAug 8 · 19:30M. Vydra1.401111113J. Vrnak2.755920LAug 8 · 19:00J. Vrnak2.20711471D. Sabuka1.6111911103LAug 8 · 18:00J. Vrnak2.38416971M. Holub1.53111411113LAug 6 · 09:10M. Holub1.4471J. Vrnak2.6350WAug 6 · 07:30T. Holomek1.737960J. Vrnak2.001111113WAug 6 · 07:00J. Vrnak1.801111113A. Akopyan1.914690
A. Skyba10
LSep 3 · 09:03L. Krutina2.101111610133A. Skyba1.67971112112WSep 3 · 07:00A. Skyba2.381111113L. Krutina1.535670WSep 3 · 06:00A. Skyba2.381411611113M. Cmil1.5316811972LSep 1 · 08:43D. Sabuka1.221111113A. Skyba4.007940WSep 1 · 07:30M. Cervenka3.255660A. Skyba1.331111113LSep 1 · 07:00A. Skyba3.751111791D. Sabuka1.2513611113LSep 1 · 06:00A. Skyba2.50128714102M. Cmil1.5010111112123LAug 27 · 12:59A. Skyba2.7512890D. Sabuka1.401411113WAug 27 · 12:00V. Kilian1.80711851A. Skyba1.9111811113WAug 27 · 11:00M. Cervenka3.251151241A. Skyba1.3351114113
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