TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13054620
Played Sep 1Finished
Antonin Skyba
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
121081171114121012
Marcel Cmil
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:19 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeMarcel Cmil to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAntonin Skyba above · Marcel Cmil below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 107 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Marcel Cmil at 63.7%
107 points played in total.
H2H Antonin Skyba 11–20 Marcel Cmil Antonin Skyba has won 11 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:19What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Cmil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-20 in 31
Cmil
Correct
gap of 9 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skyba 1194 vs Cmil 1359
Cmil
Correct
both rated, 165 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skyba 40% vs Cmil 60%
Cmil
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skyba 30% vs Cmil 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skyba -1 · Cmil +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Cmil)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkyba 2.50 / Cmil 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Cmil)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13054620
Skyba2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 24 of 82
Down 0–1, comes back12% 6 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 32
Cmil1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 97 of 160
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it77% 65 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkyba3wins
AwayCmil7wins
7 of 10 to a deciderCmil leads 7–3, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkyba60%3 of 5
AwayCmil100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skyba5Cmil5n = 10split evenly
S2Skyba2Cmil8n = 10Cmil took 8 of 10
S3Skyba6Cmil4n = 10Skyba took 6 of 10
S4Skyba2Cmil6n = 8Cmil took 6 of 8
S5Skyba3Cmil4n = 7Cmil took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkybaCmilS − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.545.7−6.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkybaCmilBasisWin rate · lifetime95 / 238 vs 368 / 67839.9%54.3%95 / 238 vs 368 / 678Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.339.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CmilSkyba 2.50/Cmil 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.1%
Cmil · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cmil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 06:00A. Skyba—128714102M. Cmil—10111112123
LAug 20 · 06:30A. Skyba—94111182M. Cmil—111195113
LJun 18 · 12:19A. Skyba—61260M. Cmil—1114113
LJun 18 · 09:45A. Skyba—11411242M. Cmil—811411113
LMay 26 · 11:30A. Skyba—81112942M. Cmil—1161011113
WApr 20 · 05:30A. Skyba—111167113M. Cmil—97111132
WMar 3 · 13:00A. Skyba—129116113M. Cmil—101191192
LMar 2 · 12:00A. Skyba—116100M. Cmil—1311123
LFeb 16 · 13:00A. Skyba—6112101M. Cmil—111110123
WFeb 2 · 17:41A. Skyba—164118113M. Cmil—141181192
A. Skyba10
LSep 3 · 09:03L. Krutina2.101111610133A. Skyba1.67971112112WSep 3 · 07:30J. Vrnak2.20961171A. Skyba1.6111115113WSep 3 · 07:00A. Skyba2.381111113L. Krutina1.535670WSep 3 · 06:00A. Skyba2.381411611113M. Cmil1.5316811972LSep 1 · 08:43D. Sabuka1.221111113A. Skyba4.007940WSep 1 · 07:30M. Cervenka3.255660A. Skyba1.331111113LSep 1 · 07:00A. Skyba3.751111791D. Sabuka1.2513611113LAug 27 · 12:59A. Skyba2.7512890D. Sabuka1.401411113WAug 27 · 12:00V. Kilian1.80711851A. Skyba1.9111811113WAug 27 · 11:00M. Cervenka3.251151241A. Skyba1.3351114113
M. Cmil10
WSep 5 · 13:08L. Krutina1.8511119972M. Cmil1.85791111113WSep 5 · 11:30A. Akopyan2.253650M. Cmil1.571111113WSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 10:00M. Cmil1.8311811892L. Krutina1.83911911113WSep 3 · 08:34M. Cmil1.50312711113J. Vrnak2.50111011562LSep 3 · 08:00M. Cmil1.807111191L. Krutina1.9111137113WSep 3 · 06:30J. Vrnak2.50911771M. Cmil1.5011211113LSep 3 · 06:00A. Skyba2.381411611113M. Cmil1.5316811972LSep 1 · 09:14M. Cmil1.61971171M. Cervenka2.2011117113WSep 1 · 08:00M. Cmil1.731111114143D. Sabuka2.00613911122
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