TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12306762
Played Jul 27Finished
Vaclav Coubal
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118118411117––
Tomas Holomek
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:26 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Holomek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVaclav Coubal above · Tomas Holomek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 71 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Tomas Holomek at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Coubal 16–13 Tomas Holomek Tomas Holomek has won 13 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:26What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Holomek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-13 in 29
Coubal
Correct
gap of 3 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Coubal 1254 vs Holomek 1233
Coubal
Correct
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Coubal 40% vs Holomek 20%
Coubal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Coubal 30% vs Holomek 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Coubal +2 · Holomek -3
Holomek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Holomek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holomek form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCoubal 1.91 / Holomek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Holomek)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #12306762
Coubal1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 36 of 96
Down 0–1, comes back16% 8 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 35
Holomek1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite42% won 16 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it67% 14 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCoubal4wins
AwayHolomek6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHolomek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCoubal66.7%4 of 6
AwayHolomek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Coubal6Holomek4n = 10Coubal took 6 of 10
S2Coubal5Holomek5n = 10split evenly
S3Coubal2Holomek8n = 10Holomek took 8 of 10
S4Coubal3Holomek5n = 8Holomek took 5 of 8
S5Coubal2Holomek1n = 3Coubal took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricCoubalHolomekC − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.837.1+0.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCoubalHolomekBasisWin rate · lifetime195 / 407 vs 64 / 14247.9%45.1%195 / 407 vs 64 / 142Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolomekCoubal 1.91/Holomek 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Holomek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Coubal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 29 · 17:30V. Coubal—119511113T. Holomek—81111892
LJun 15 · 20:00V. Coubal—12780T. Holomek—1411113
LMay 27 · 17:30V. Coubal—5111271T. Holomek—11814113
LJan 29 · 12:00V. Coubal—11118942T. Holomek—481111113
LJan 22 · 12:00V. Coubal—981191T. Holomek—11115113
WDec 4 · 12:30V. Coubal—1111113T. Holomek—4760
WNov 28 · 10:45V. Coubal—118611113T. Holomek—61111672
WNov 14 · 13:20V. Coubal—11119113T. Holomek—371171
LNov 14 · 10:45V. Coubal—118761T. Holomek—61111113
LOct 29 · 19:00V. Coubal—9111321T. Holomek—1141563
V. Coubal10
LSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460WSep 6 · 15:30V. Coubal1.611113133P. Muller2.20811110WSep 6 · 14:30V. Coubal1.611111113A. Akopyan2.207450LSep 6 · 13:30V. Coubal3.4012711492M. Holub1.301011811113WAug 25 · 16:34M. Cmil1.5712990V. Coubal2.251411113LAug 25 · 15:30M. Holub1.4411811113V. Coubal2.63611851LAug 25 · 15:00V. Coubal2.635870J. Jnr1.441111113WAug 25 · 14:00V. Coubal2.5011612113M. Cmil1.507111091LAug 24 · 20:33M. Cmil1.50101111133V. Coubal2.501254111LAug 24 · 19:30V. Coubal1.8310930M. Vydra1.831211113
T. Holomek10
LAug 13 · 12:58D. Sabuka1.25911511113T. Holomek3.7511511782LAug 13 · 12:00T. Holomek2.206870D. Sabuka1.611111113LAug 13 · 10:30M. Holub1.401111123T. Holomek2.7587100LAug 13 · 10:00A. Akopyan2.5026911123T. Holomek1.5024116101LAug 6 · 08:38A. Akopyan2.38116115113T. Holomek1.5361181182LAug 6 · 07:30T. Holomek1.737960J. Vrnak2.001111113LAug 6 · 06:30T. Holomek2.2510480M. Holub1.571211113WAug 6 · 05:30T. Holomek1.4071411113A. Akopyan2.751112761LJul 27 · 16:28T. Holomek2.50121281152M. Cmil1.501410113113LJul 27 · 15:00M. Cmil1.831111113T. Holomek1.837870
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