TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12367321
Played Aug 6Finished
Tomas Holomek
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012411811––––
Martin Holub
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:26 and never touched — 67.8% is still 67.8%
Graded at full timeMartin Holub to win
67.8%
67.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Holomek above · Martin Holub below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 56 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Martin Holub at 67.8%
56 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Holomek 6–8 Martin Holub Tomas Holomek has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:26What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Holub
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-8 in 14
Holub
Correct
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holomek 1191 vs Holub 1317
Holub
Correct
both rated, 126 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holomek 20% vs Holub 80%
Holub
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holomek 30% vs Holub 70%
Holub
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holomek +1 · Holub +4
Holub
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Holub) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolomek 2.25 / Holub 1.57
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Holub)+8.0pp
Setka Cup · #12367321
Holomek2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog44% won 12 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back23% 3 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Holub1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 100 of 169
Up 2–0, closes it98% 53 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it78% 76 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolomek3wins
AwayHolub7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHolub leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolomek75%3 of 4
AwayHolub100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holomek4Holub6n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S2Holomek2Holub8n = 10Holub took 8 of 10
S3Holomek4Holub6n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S4Holomek2Holub4n = 6Holub took 4 of 6
S5Holomek2Holub1n = 3Holomek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolomekHolubHolomek − HolubBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.939.8−5.9per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolomekHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime61 / 140 vs 351 / 65443.6%53.7%61 / 140 vs 351 / 654Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubHolomek 2.25/Holub 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.9%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 6 · 06:30T. Holomek—10480M. Holub—1211113
LJul 20 · 14:30T. Holomek—10750M. Holub—1211113
WMay 21 · 12:38T. Holomek—1311113M. Holub—11950
LMay 21 · 11:30T. Holomek—5121061M. Holub—111012113
LApr 23 · 12:23T. Holomek—4911111M. Holub—11114133
LApr 23 · 09:45T. Holomek—6660M. Holub—1111113
LJan 22 · 14:05T. Holomek—159712102M. Holub—13111110123
LJan 22 · 10:30T. Holomek—871441M. Holub—111112113
WDec 4 · 10:30T. Holomek—117114113M. Holub—71181172
WNov 6 · 12:00T. Holomek—117411113M. Holub—71111862
T. Holomek10
LAug 13 · 12:58D. Sabuka1.25911511113T. Holomek3.7511511782LAug 13 · 12:00T. Holomek2.206870D. Sabuka1.611111113LAug 13 · 10:30M. Holub1.401111123T. Holomek2.7587100LAug 13 · 10:00A. Akopyan2.5026911123T. Holomek1.5024116101LAug 6 · 08:38A. Akopyan2.38116115113T. Holomek1.5361181182LAug 6 · 07:30T. Holomek1.737960J. Vrnak2.001111113WAug 6 · 05:30T. Holomek1.4071411113A. Akopyan2.751112761LJul 27 · 16:28T. Holomek2.50121281152M. Cmil1.501410113113LJul 27 · 16:00V. Coubal2.1011114113T. Holomek1.67881171LJul 27 · 15:00M. Cmil1.831111113T. Holomek1.837870
M. Holub10
WSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460LSep 6 · 16:00A. Akopyan2.0091111113M. Holub1.73119741WSep 6 · 15:00P. Muller2.631110761M. Holub1.4481211113WSep 6 · 13:30V. Coubal3.4012711492M. Holub1.301011811113WSep 5 · 12:40M. Holub1.53613311113A. Akopyan2.38111111642WSep 5 · 12:00L. Krutina1.80111012992M. Holub1.919121011113LSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 09:30A. Akopyan2.001211113M. Holub1.7310490WSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub2.001113113J. Jnr1.7391170WAug 13 · 10:30M. Holub1.401111123T. Holomek2.7587100
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