TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12482438
Played Aug 24Finished
Milan Vydra
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
13158111113––––
Martin Holub
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:19 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Holub to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Vydra above · Martin Holub below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 71 set 3, 11-13 — our read held Martin Holub at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Milan Vydra 17–16 Martin Holub Martin Holub has won 16 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:19What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vydra
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-16 in 33
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vydra 1334 vs Holub 1415
Holub
Correct
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vydra 60% vs Holub 80%
Holub
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vydra 80% vs Holub 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vydra +1 · Holub -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Holub) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVydra 1.80 / Holub 1.91
Signal prob.45% / 56%
Edge (Holub)+7.0pp
Setka Cup · #12482438
Vydra1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite48% won 29 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it72% 21 of 29
Holub1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog51% won 63 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back29% 16 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVydra6wins
AwayHolub4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderVydra leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVydra100%3 of 3
AwayHolub57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vydra3Holub7n = 10Holub took 7 of 10
S2Vydra5Holub5n = 10split evenly
S3Vydra7Holub3n = 10Vydra took 7 of 10
S4Vydra4Holub4n = 8split evenly
S5Vydra4Holub2n = 6Vydra took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVydraHolubV − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.838.6+1.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVydraHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime110 / 225 vs 366 / 66648.9%55%110 / 225 vs 366 / 666Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubVydra 1.80/Holub 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.5%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 19 · 12:00M. Vydra—1491111102M. Holub—161158123
WAug 8 · 18:30M. Vydra—41111183M. Holub—11711322
WJul 19 · 08:33M. Vydra—411118113M. Holub—11961152
WJul 19 · 05:30M. Vydra—115711113M. Holub—61111682
LJul 11 · 08:28M. Vydra—461191M. Holub—11117113
LJul 11 · 07:00M. Vydra—7430M. Holub—1111113
WJun 21 · 08:39M. Vydra—1111113M. Holub—4730
WJun 21 · 06:30M. Vydra—111212113M. Holub—9141081
WMay 31 · 09:15M. Vydra—611128113M. Holub—116101152
LMay 31 · 08:00M. Vydra—711118102M. Holub—118311123
M. Vydra10
LAug 24 · 21:03M. Holub1.831171110113M. Vydra1.8361171282WAug 24 · 19:30V. Coubal1.8310930M. Vydra1.831211113WAug 24 · 19:00M. Vydra1.801111113M. Cmil1.918250WAug 19 · 12:43M. Vydra2.251311113V. Kucala1.5711540LAug 19 · 12:00M. Vydra1.671491111102M. Holub2.10161158123WAug 19 · 10:30A. Akopyan2.7551151192M. Vydra1.40118119113LAug 19 · 10:00V. Kucala1.6781111153M. Vydra2.101145131WAug 10 · 09:08A. Akopyan2.637111151M. Vydra1.4411813113WAug 10 · 07:30M. Vydra2.008111211113F. Fryml1.7311314932WAug 10 · 06:30M. Vydra1.30128117113A. Skyba3.40101141182
M. Holub10
WSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460LSep 6 · 16:00A. Akopyan2.0091111113M. Holub1.73119741WSep 6 · 15:00P. Muller2.631110761M. Holub1.4481211113WSep 6 · 13:30V. Coubal3.4012711492M. Holub1.301011811113WSep 5 · 12:40M. Holub1.53613311113A. Akopyan2.38111111642WSep 5 · 12:00L. Krutina1.80111012992M. Holub1.919121011113LSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 09:30A. Akopyan2.001211113M. Holub1.7310490WAug 24 · 21:03M. Holub1.831171110113M. Vydra1.8361171282WAug 19 · 12:00M. Vydra1.671491111102M. Holub2.10161158123
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