TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12457045
Played Aug 19Finished
Milan Vydra
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
14169111151181012
Martin Holub
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:02 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Holub to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Vydra above · Martin Holub below
Set 1 · 14-16
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 107 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Martin Holub at 54.0%
107 points played in total.
H2H Milan Vydra 17–15 Martin Holub Martin Holub has won 15 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:02What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Vydra
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-15 in 32
Vydra
Wrong
gap of 2 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vydra 1335 vs Holub 1400
Holub
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vydra 80% vs Holub 60%
Vydra
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vydra 80% vs Holub 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vydra +1 · Holub +3
Holub
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Holub)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVydra 1.67 / Holub 2.10
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Holub)+9.8pp
Setka Cup · #12457045
Vydra1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite48% won 30 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it70% 21 of 30
Holub2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 62 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back29% 17 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVydra6wins
AwayHolub4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderVydra leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVydra100%3 of 3
AwayHolub57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vydra3Holub7n = 10Holub took 7 of 10
S2Vydra6Holub4n = 10Vydra took 6 of 10
S3Vydra7Holub3n = 10Vydra took 7 of 10
S4Vydra3Holub5n = 8Holub took 5 of 8
S5Vydra4Holub2n = 6Vydra took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVydraHolubV − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.138.2−0.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVydraHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime112 / 227 vs 366 / 67249.3%54.5%112 / 227 vs 366 / 672Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubVydra 1.67/Holub 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 8 · 18:30M. Vydra—41111183M. Holub—11711322
WJul 19 · 08:33M. Vydra—411118113M. Holub—11961152
WJul 19 · 05:30M. Vydra—115711113M. Holub—61111682
LJul 11 · 08:28M. Vydra—461191M. Holub—11117113
LJul 11 · 07:00M. Vydra—7430M. Holub—1111113
WJun 21 · 08:39M. Vydra—1111113M. Holub—4730
WJun 21 · 06:30M. Vydra—111212113M. Holub—9141081
WMay 31 · 09:15M. Vydra—611128113M. Holub—116101152
LMay 31 · 08:00M. Vydra—711118102M. Holub—118311123
LMay 17 · 15:30M. Vydra—21112582M. Holub—1151011113
M. Vydra10
LAug 24 · 21:03M. Holub1.831171110113M. Vydra1.8361171282WAug 24 · 19:30V. Coubal1.8310930M. Vydra1.831211113WAug 24 · 19:00M. Vydra1.801111113M. Cmil1.918250LAug 24 · 18:00M. Vydra1.80138110M. Holub1.911511133WAug 19 · 12:43M. Vydra2.251311113V. Kucala1.5711540WAug 19 · 10:30A. Akopyan2.7551151192M. Vydra1.40118119113LAug 19 · 10:00V. Kucala1.6781111153M. Vydra2.101145131WAug 10 · 09:08A. Akopyan2.637111151M. Vydra1.4411813113WAug 10 · 07:30M. Vydra2.008111211113F. Fryml1.7311314932WAug 10 · 06:30M. Vydra1.30128117113A. Skyba3.40101141182
M. Holub10
WSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460LSep 6 · 16:00A. Akopyan2.0091111113M. Holub1.73119741WSep 6 · 15:00P. Muller2.631110761M. Holub1.4481211113WSep 6 · 13:30V. Coubal3.4012711492M. Holub1.301011811113WSep 5 · 12:40M. Holub1.53613311113A. Akopyan2.38111111642WSep 5 · 12:00L. Krutina1.80111012992M. Holub1.919121011113LSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 09:30A. Akopyan2.001211113M. Holub1.7310490WAug 24 · 21:03M. Holub1.831171110113M. Vydra1.8361171282WAug 24 · 18:00M. Vydra1.80138110M. Holub1.911511133
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