TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12482470
Played Aug 24Finished
Milan Vydra
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118112115––––
Marcel Cmil
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:17 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeMarcel Cmil to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMilan Vydra above · Marcel Cmil below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 48 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Marcel Cmil at 58.5%
48 points played in total.
H2H Milan Vydra 14–16 Marcel Cmil Milan Vydra has won 14 of their 30 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:17What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vydra
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-16 in 30
Cmil
Wrong
gap of 2 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vydra 1324 vs Cmil 1413
Cmil
Wrong
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vydra 40% vs Cmil 60%
Cmil
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vydra 70% vs Cmil 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vydra -1 · Cmil -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Cmil) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vydra form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVydra 1.80 / Cmil 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Cmil)+6.0pp
Setka Cup · #12482470
Vydra1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite48% won 29 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it72% 21 of 29
Cmil1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 63 of 134
Down 0–1, comes back30% 22 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVydra5wins
AwayCmil5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVydra75%3 of 4
AwayCmil66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vydra4Cmil6n = 10Cmil took 6 of 10
S2Vydra6Cmil4n = 10Vydra took 6 of 10
S3Vydra7Cmil3n = 10Vydra took 7 of 10
S4Vydra2Cmil3n = 5Cmil took 3 of 5
S5Vydra2Cmil3n = 5Cmil took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVydraCmilV − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.435.6+2.8per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVydraCmilBasisWin rate · lifetime110 / 226 vs 366 / 67948.7%53.9%110 / 226 vs 366 / 679Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CmilVydra 1.80/Cmil 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Cmil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Vydra won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 27 · 15:30M. Vydra—871111113M. Cmil—11117922
LJul 23 · 06:30M. Vydra—111167102M. Cmil—821111123
WJul 18 · 20:28M. Vydra—1111113M. Cmil—5630
LJul 18 · 17:30M. Vydra—511139102M. Cmil—1171111123
LJul 11 · 06:00M. Vydra—1412120M. Cmil—1614143
LJun 28 · 12:28M. Vydra—8440M. Cmil—1111113
WJun 28 · 11:30M. Vydra—1111113M. Cmil—6630
WJun 27 · 17:13M. Vydra—1111113M. Cmil—8660
WJun 27 · 14:30M. Vydra—811119113M. Cmil—11781162
LJun 14 · 09:09M. Vydra—77111142M. Cmil—111199113
M. Vydra10
LAug 24 · 21:03M. Holub1.831171110113M. Vydra1.8361171282WAug 24 · 19:30V. Coubal1.8310930M. Vydra1.831211113LAug 24 · 18:00M. Vydra1.80138110M. Holub1.911511133WAug 19 · 12:43M. Vydra2.251311113V. Kucala1.5711540LAug 19 · 12:00M. Vydra1.671491111102M. Holub2.10161158123WAug 19 · 10:30A. Akopyan2.7551151192M. Vydra1.40118119113LAug 19 · 10:00V. Kucala1.6781111153M. Vydra2.101145131WAug 10 · 09:08A. Akopyan2.637111151M. Vydra1.4411813113WAug 10 · 07:30M. Vydra2.008111211113F. Fryml1.7311314932WAug 10 · 06:30M. Vydra1.30128117113A. Skyba3.40101141182
M. Cmil10
WSep 5 · 13:08L. Krutina1.8511119972M. Cmil1.85791111113WSep 5 · 11:30A. Akopyan2.253650M. Cmil1.571111113WSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 10:00M. Cmil1.8311811892L. Krutina1.83911911113WSep 3 · 08:34M. Cmil1.50312711113J. Vrnak2.50111011562LSep 3 · 08:00M. Cmil1.807111191L. Krutina1.9111137113WSep 3 · 06:30J. Vrnak2.50911771M. Cmil1.5011211113LSep 3 · 06:00A. Skyba2.381411611113M. Cmil1.5316811972LSep 1 · 09:14M. Cmil1.61971171M. Cervenka2.2011117113WSep 1 · 08:00M. Cmil1.731111114143D. Sabuka2.00613911122
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