TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12482317
Played Aug 24Finished
Vaclav Coubal
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116411611511––
Martin Holub
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:56 and never touched — 67.8% is still 67.8%
Graded at full timeMartin Holub to win
67.8%
67.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVaclav Coubal above · Martin Holub below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 65 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Martin Holub at 67.8%
65 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Coubal 29–32 Martin Holub Vaclav Coubal has won 29 of their 61 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:56What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Holub
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-32 in 61
Holub
Correct
gap of 3 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Coubal 1247 vs Holub 1426
Holub
Correct
both rated, 179 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Coubal 20% vs Holub 80%
Holub
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Coubal 20% vs Holub 70%
Holub
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Coubal +1 · Holub +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Holub) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCoubal 2.63 / Holub 1.44
Signal prob.29% / 72%
Edge (Holub)+7.0pp
Setka Cup · #12482317
Coubal2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 39 of 106
Down 0–1, comes back16% 9 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 41
Holub1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 103 of 172
Up 2–0, closes it100% 53 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it78% 77 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCoubal3wins
AwayHolub7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHolub leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCoubal75%3 of 4
AwayHolub100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Coubal4Holub6n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S2Coubal5Holub5n = 10split evenly
S3Coubal3Holub7n = 10Holub took 7 of 10
S4Coubal3Holub3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricCoubalHolubC − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.538.5−5.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCoubalHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime184 / 386 vs 367 / 66747.7%55%184 / 386 vs 367 / 667Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.439.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubCoubal 2.63/Holub 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.5%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 16 · 18:00V. Coubal—12670M. Holub—1411113
WAug 9 · 15:00V. Coubal—11116123M. Holub—9611101
LJul 26 · 18:30V. Coubal—111191162M. Holub—741113113
WJul 14 · 16:59V. Coubal—1111123M. Holub—97100
LJul 14 · 16:00V. Coubal—3111281M. Holub—111310113
LJul 7 · 14:30V. Coubal—71381162M. Holub—1111115113
WJun 11 · 18:00V. Coubal—11113113M. Holub—981181
LJun 7 · 16:28V. Coubal—61080M. Holub—1112113
LJun 7 · 15:15V. Coubal—6470M. Holub—1111113
LMay 20 · 19:00V. Coubal—1161141M. Holub—13119113
V. Coubal10
LSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460WSep 6 · 15:30V. Coubal1.611113133P. Muller2.20811110WSep 6 · 14:30V. Coubal1.611111113A. Akopyan2.207450LSep 6 · 13:30V. Coubal3.4012711492M. Holub1.301011811113WAug 25 · 16:34M. Cmil1.5712990V. Coubal2.251411113LAug 25 · 15:30M. Holub1.4411811113V. Coubal2.63611851LAug 25 · 15:00V. Coubal2.635870J. Jnr1.441111113WAug 25 · 14:00V. Coubal2.5011612113M. Cmil1.507111091LAug 24 · 20:33M. Cmil1.50101111133V. Coubal2.501254111LAug 24 · 19:30V. Coubal1.8310930M. Vydra1.831211113
M. Holub10
WSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460LSep 6 · 16:00A. Akopyan2.0091111113M. Holub1.73119741WSep 6 · 15:00P. Muller2.631110761M. Holub1.4481211113WSep 6 · 13:30V. Coubal3.4012711492M. Holub1.301011811113WSep 5 · 12:40M. Holub1.53613311113A. Akopyan2.38111111642WSep 5 · 12:00L. Krutina1.80111012992M. Holub1.919121011113LSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 09:30A. Akopyan2.001211113M. Holub1.7310490WSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub2.001113113J. Jnr1.7391170WAug 25 · 15:30M. Holub1.4411811113V. Coubal2.63611851
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