TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13095059
Played Sep 8Finished
Vaclav Coubal
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1161142111012113
Marcel Cmil
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:43 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeMarcel Cmil to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVaclav Coubal above · Marcel Cmil below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 81 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Marcel Cmil at 62.1%
81 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Coubal 31–43 Marcel Cmil Vaclav Coubal has won 31 of their 74 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:43What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Cmil
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-43 in 74
Cmil
Wrong
gap of 12 in 74, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Coubal 1272 vs Cmil 1356
Cmil
Wrong
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Coubal 60% vs Cmil 80%
Cmil
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Coubal 40% vs Cmil 60%
Cmil
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Coubal -1 · Cmil +3
Cmil
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Cmil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cmil form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCoubal 2.25 / Cmil 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Cmil)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13095059
Coubal2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 39 of 111
Down 0–1, comes back15% 9 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 43
Cmil1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 99 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it76% 66 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCoubal5wins
AwayCmil5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCoubal62.5%5 of 8
AwayCmiln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Coubal8Cmil2n = 10Coubal took 8 of 10
S2Coubal2Cmil8n = 10Cmil took 8 of 10
S3Coubal4Cmil6n = 10Cmil took 6 of 10
S4Coubal6Cmil3n = 9Coubal took 6 of 9
S5Coubal3Cmil3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCoubalCmilCoubal − CmilBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.342.2+0.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCoubalCmilBasisWin rate · lifetime178 / 381 vs 367 / 67846.7%54.1%178 / 381 vs 367 / 678Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.139.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CmilCoubal 2.25/Cmil 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.1%
Cmil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Coubal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 16:34V. Coubal—1411113M. Cmil—12990
WAug 25 · 14:00V. Coubal—11612113M. Cmil—7111091
LAug 24 · 20:33V. Coubal—1254111M. Cmil—101111133
WAug 24 · 17:30V. Coubal—111195113M. Cmil—59111142
LAug 16 · 19:30V. Coubal—119101142M. Cmil—411128113
LJul 28 · 17:30V. Coubal—511111152M. Cmil—111395113
WJul 27 · 14:00V. Coubal—117811113M. Cmil—81111822
LJul 26 · 20:00V. Coubal—5101281M. Cmil—111210113
LJul 14 · 14:00V. Coubal—118912102M. Cmil—4111110123
WJun 29 · 20:59V. Coubal—1110411113M. Cmil—61211682
V. Coubal10
LSep 8 · 18:30V. Coubal2.758314121J. Jnr1.40111112143LSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460WSep 6 · 15:30V. Coubal1.611113133P. Muller2.20811110WSep 6 · 14:30V. Coubal1.611111113A. Akopyan2.207450LSep 6 · 13:30V. Coubal3.4012711492M. Holub1.301011811113WAug 25 · 16:34M. Cmil1.5712990V. Coubal2.251411113LAug 25 · 15:30M. Holub1.4411811113V. Coubal2.63611851LAug 25 · 15:00V. Coubal2.635870J. Jnr1.441111113WAug 25 · 14:00V. Coubal2.5011612113M. Cmil1.507111091LAug 24 · 20:33M. Cmil1.50101111133V. Coubal2.501254111
M. Cmil10
WSep 5 · 13:08L. Krutina1.8511119972M. Cmil1.85791111113WSep 5 · 11:30A. Akopyan2.253650M. Cmil1.571111113WSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 10:00M. Cmil1.8311811892L. Krutina1.83911911113WSep 3 · 08:34M. Cmil1.50312711113J. Vrnak2.50111011562LSep 3 · 08:00M. Cmil1.807111191L. Krutina1.9111137113WSep 3 · 06:30J. Vrnak2.50911771M. Cmil1.5011211113LAug 25 · 16:34M. Cmil1.5712990V. Coubal2.251411113LAug 25 · 14:00V. Coubal2.5011612113M. Cmil1.507111091WAug 24 · 20:33M. Cmil1.50101111133V. Coubal2.501254111
Upcoming Matches
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M. Cmil
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