TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100627
Played Sep 9Finished
Jakub Dufek Jnr
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411811611––––
Pavel Moulis
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:21 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeJakub Dufek Jnr to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Dufek Jnr above · Pavel Moulis below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 51 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Jakub Dufek Jnr at 58.1%
51 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Dufek Jnr 3–2 Pavel Moulis Pavel Moulis has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:21What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Jnr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1344 vs Moulis 1338
Jnr
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 80% vs Moulis 40%
Jnr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 50% vs Moulis 30%
Jnr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr +3 · Moulis -1
Jnr
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Jnr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.61 / Moulis 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Jnr)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13100627
Jnr1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 94 of 149
Up 2–0, closes it90% 47 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it74% 67 of 90
Moulis2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 18 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeJnr3wins
AwayMoulis2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderJnr leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnrn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMoulis33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr2Moulis3n = 5Moulis took 3 of 5
S2Jnr3Moulis2n = 5Jnr took 3 of 5
S3Jnr2Moulis3n = 5Moulis took 3 of 5
S4Jnr2Moulis3n = 5Moulis took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricJnrMoulisJ − MBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match40.639.8+0.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrMoulisBasisWin rate · lifetime243 / 467 vs 196 / 43152%45.5%243 / 467 vs 196 / 431Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrJnr 1.61/Moulis 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Moulis won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 2 · 11:00J. Jnr—11118113P. Moulis—971151
WAug 28 · 09:30J. Jnr—711611113P. Moulis—11711692
WAug 14 · 15:00J. Jnr—4111110113P. Moulis—11491262
LJul 24 · 20:59J. Jnr—1112771P. Moulis—41411113
LJul 24 · 20:00J. Jnr—391191P. Moulis—11118113
J. Jnr10
WSep 9 · 10:30M. Melisek1.5381161192J. Jnr2.38118119113WSep 9 · 10:00J. Blazek2.10125991J. Jnr1.67101111113WSep 8 · 20:58M. Cmil1.831011111392J. Jnr1.831271311113LSep 8 · 20:00J. Jnr1.80511851M. Cmil1.9111711113WSep 8 · 18:30V. Coubal2.758314121J. Jnr1.40111112143WSep 8 · 18:00M. Vydra2.63611691J. Jnr1.4411911113LSep 3 · 12:58J. Seeman2.0011119113J. Jnr1.73681171LSep 3 · 12:00J. Jnr1.5791090J. Seeman2.251112113LSep 3 · 10:30J. Blazek2.501071111113J. Jnr1.5012116972LSep 3 · 10:00J. Krejcik1.611111410153J. Jnr2.20531112132
P. Moulis10
LSep 9 · 11:00J. Blazek1.8391112113P. Moulis1.831171051WSep 9 · 09:30M. Melisek1.83611711112P. Moulis1.83119119133LSep 4 · 08:53P. Moulis2.3831111892M. Snizek1.53118611113WSep 4 · 08:00J. Puk1.6711141110142P. Moulis2.10816912163LSep 4 · 07:00M. Vorel1.3681111113P. Moulis3.00113531LSep 4 · 05:30M. Snizek1.6111116113P. Moulis2.20561151WSep 2 · 12:39P. Moulis2.3811121112113P. Cizek1.5381471472LSep 2 · 12:00M. Holub2.754111311123P. Moulis1.401171113102LSep 2 · 11:00J. Jnr1.7311118113P. Moulis2.00971151LSep 2 · 09:30P. Cizek1.7391111113P. Moulis2.00112791
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