TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100616
Played Sep 9Finished
Jan Blazek
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111171210115––
Pavel Moulis
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavel Moulis to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Blazek above · Pavel Moulis below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 76 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Pavel Moulis at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Jan Blazek 10–14 Pavel Moulis Jan Blazek has won 10 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:23What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Moulis
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-14 in 24
Moulis
Wrong
gap of 4 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Blazek 1396 vs Moulis 1348
Blazek
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Blazek 60% vs Moulis 40%
Blazek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Blazek 70% vs Moulis 40%
Blazek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Blazek -1 · Moulis +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Moulis)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moulis form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBlazek 1.83 / Moulis 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Moulis)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13100616
Blazek1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Moulis1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBlazek6wins
AwayMoulis4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBlazek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBlazek71.4%5 of 7
AwayMoulis66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Blazek7Moulis3n = 10Blazek took 7 of 10
S2Blazek6Moulis4n = 10Blazek took 6 of 10
S3Blazek5Moulis5n = 10split evenly
S4Blazek6Moulis4n = 10Blazek took 6 of 10
S5Blazek1Moulis3n = 4Moulis took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBlazekMoulisB − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.739.9+1.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBlazekMoulisBasisWin rate · lifetime164 / 378 vs 196 / 43043.4%45.6%164 / 378 vs 196 / 430Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoulisBlazek 1.83/Moulis 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Moulis · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Blazek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMar 6 · 13:34J. Blazek—861161P. Moulis—11119113
LMar 6 · 12:30J. Blazek—111110762P. Moulis—691211113
WMar 5 · 11:00J. Blazek—91111113P. Moulis—116581
WMar 4 · 11:00J. Blazek—111177113P. Moulis—88111192
LFeb 5 · 18:11J. Blazek—241111102P. Moulis—111187123
LFeb 5 · 17:00J. Blazek—111011872P. Moulis—712511113
WDec 12 · 13:12J. Blazek—13611123P. Moulis—11115101
WDec 12 · 10:45J. Blazek—111110103P. Moulis—981241
WDec 10 · 12:30J. Blazek—11118113P. Moulis—661191
WDec 1 · 12:30J. Blazek—14116113P. Moulis—1231181
J. Blazek10
LSep 9 · 12:29J. Blazek2.10211471M. Melisek1.6711811113LSep 9 · 11:30M. Melisek1.831111113J. Blazek1.839250LSep 9 · 10:00J. Blazek2.10125991J. Jnr1.67101111113WSep 8 · 17:08J. Blazek3.2511911113P. Kotrbacek1.33811491WSep 8 · 16:00J. Blazek2.00711415113M. Melisek1.73118111352WSep 8 · 14:30J. Hanacek1.50712771J. Blazek2.50111011113LSep 8 · 14:00P. Kotrbacek1.401112113J. Blazek2.7521090WSep 3 · 12:28J. Krejcik1.8391170J. Blazek1.831113113WSep 3 · 11:30J. Blazek1.731071513113J. Krejcik2.001211131162WSep 3 · 10:30J. Blazek2.501071111113J. Jnr1.5012116972
P. Moulis10
WSep 9 · 12:00J. Jnr1.614860P. Moulis2.201111113WSep 9 · 09:30M. Melisek1.83611711112P. Moulis1.83119119133LSep 4 · 08:53P. Moulis2.3831111892M. Snizek1.53118611113WSep 4 · 08:00J. Puk1.6711141110142P. Moulis2.10816912163LSep 4 · 07:00M. Vorel1.3681111113P. Moulis3.00113531LSep 4 · 05:30M. Snizek1.6111116113P. Moulis2.20561151WSep 2 · 12:39P. Moulis2.3811121112113P. Cizek1.5381471472LSep 2 · 12:00M. Holub2.754111311123P. Moulis1.401171113102LSep 2 · 11:00J. Jnr1.7311118113P. Moulis2.00971151LSep 2 · 09:30P. Cizek1.7391111113P. Moulis2.00112791
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