TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13095099
Played Sep 8Finished
Jan Blazek
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111184111513115
Marian Melisek
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarian Melisek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Blazek above · Marian Melisek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 15-13
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 96 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Marian Melisek at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Jan Blazek 19–23 Marian Melisek Jan Blazek has won 19 of their 42 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:43What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Melisek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-23 in 42
Melisek
Wrong
gap of 4 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Blazek 1385 vs Melisek 1386
Melisek
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Blazek 80% vs Melisek 40%
Blazek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Blazek 50% vs Melisek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Blazek +1 · Melisek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Melisek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melisek form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBlazek 2.00 / Melisek 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Melisek)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13095099
Blazek2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 48 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back21% 16 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 35
Melisek1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 46 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it82% 23 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it73% 33 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBlazek5wins
AwayMelisek5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBlazek75%3 of 4
AwayMelisek66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Blazek4Melisek6n = 10Melisek took 6 of 10
S2Blazek7Melisek3n = 10Blazek took 7 of 10
S3Blazek4Melisek6n = 10Melisek took 6 of 10
S4Blazek6Melisek1n = 7Blazek took 6 of 7
S5Blazek0Melisek3n = 3Melisek took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBlazekMelisekB − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.436.9−2.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBlazekMelisekBasisWin rate · lifetime163 / 378 vs 223 / 46043.1%48.5%163 / 378 vs 223 / 460Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelisekBlazek 2.00/Melisek 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Melisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Blazek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 11:15J. Blazek—11161152M. Melisek—119118113
WAug 5 · 15:30J. Blazek—11111123M. Melisek—8611101
LJul 30 · 09:30J. Blazek—51171172M. Melisek—115115113
LJul 15 · 16:33J. Blazek—5160M. Melisek—1111113
LJul 15 · 14:30J. Blazek—8540M. Melisek—1111113
WJul 10 · 10:30J. Blazek—1111113M. Melisek—9790
WJun 24 · 12:38J. Blazek—11116143M. Melisek—5711121
WJun 24 · 11:00J. Blazek—81111123M. Melisek—1197101
LJun 22 · 10:45J. Blazek—117119102M. Melisek—911511123
WJun 3 · 09:15J. Blazek—71111113M. Melisek—119461
J. Blazek10
WSep 8 · 17:08J. Blazek3.2511911113P. Kotrbacek1.33811491WSep 8 · 14:30J. Hanacek1.50712771J. Blazek2.50111011113LSep 8 · 14:00P. Kotrbacek1.401112113J. Blazek2.7521090WSep 3 · 12:28J. Krejcik1.8391170J. Blazek1.831113113WSep 3 · 11:30J. Blazek1.731071513113J. Krejcik2.001211131162WSep 3 · 10:30J. Blazek2.501071111113J. Jnr1.5012116972LSep 3 · 09:30J. Blazek2.0092111162J. Seeman1.73111199113WAug 28 · 12:23J. Hanacek1.4081411592J. Blazek2.751112811113LAug 28 · 11:15J. Blazek1.8311161152M. Melisek1.83119118113LAug 28 · 10:15J. Blazek2.6361080M. Vorel1.441112113
M. Melisek10
WSep 8 · 16:39M. Melisek2.00112187153J. Hanacek1.735111611132LSep 8 · 15:00P. Kotrbacek1.4411129113M. Melisek2.637101151WSep 8 · 13:30J. Hanacek1.5710101161M. Melisek2.2512126113WSep 1 · 12:38M. Melisek1.6191211113J. Jnr2.201110871LSep 1 · 12:00M. Melisek2.2011811842M. Vorel1.61511311113LSep 1 · 10:30R. Slunecko1.57911911113M. Melisek2.2511911832WSep 1 · 10:00J. Jnr1.735890M. Melisek2.001111113LAug 30 · 16:33J. Hanacek1.53891211113M. Melisek2.38111110622WAug 30 · 15:30M. Melisek2.75611126143P. Abraham1.401181011122WAug 28 · 11:15J. Blazek1.8311161152M. Melisek1.83119118113
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