TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094700
Played Sep 8Finished
Petr Kotrbacek
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171210911115––
Marian Melisek
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:52 and never touched — 68.1% is still 68.1%
Graded at full timePetr Kotrbacek to win
68.1%
68.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Kotrbacek above · Marian Melisek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 76 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Petr Kotrbacek at 68.1%
76 points played in total.
H2H Petr Kotrbacek 7–4 Marian Melisek Marian Melisek has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:52What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kotrbacek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-4 in 11
Kotrbacek
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotrbacek 1483 vs Melisek 1395
Kotrbacek
Correct
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotrbacek 80% vs Melisek 60%
Kotrbacek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotrbacek 70% vs Melisek 50%
Kotrbacek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotrbacek +2 · Melisek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Kotrbacek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melisek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotrbacek 1.44 / Melisek 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Kotrbacek)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13094700
Kotrbacek1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 37 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it72% 26 of 36
Melisek2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 63 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back24% 17 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKotrbacek6wins
AwayMelisek4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKotrbacek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotrbacek80%4 of 5
AwayMelisek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotrbacek5Melisek5n = 10split evenly
S2Kotrbacek8Melisek2n = 10Kotrbacek took 8 of 10
S3Kotrbacek9Melisek1n = 10Kotrbacek took 9 of 10
S4Kotrbacek3Melisek4n = 7Melisek took 4 of 7
S5Kotrbacek1Melisek4n = 5Melisek took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKotrbacekMelisekK − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.937.3+3.6per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotrbacekMelisekBasisWin rate · lifetime127 / 269 vs 223 / 45947.2%48.6%127 / 269 vs 223 / 459Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.538.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KotrbacekKotrbacek 1.44/Melisek 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.1%
Kotrbacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kotrbacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 20 · 09:15P. Kotrbacek—1112113M. Melisek—61090
WMay 28 · 14:45P. Kotrbacek—121411113M. Melisek—1016881
LMay 2 · 05:30P. Kotrbacek—811128102M. Melisek—1171011123
WApr 29 · 14:30P. Kotrbacek—311119113M. Melisek—11981162
WJul 2 · 16:30P. Kotrbacek—1111113M. Melisek—1570
LJul 2 · 15:00P. Kotrbacek—11811662M. Melisek—411411113
WJun 25 · 17:05P. Kotrbacek—1111113M. Melisek—5770
LJun 25 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek—61413662M. Melisek—11121111113
LJun 18 · 16:32P. Kotrbacek—81181132M. Melisek—117117113
WJun 18 · 13:30P. Kotrbacek—61111113M. Melisek—118691
P. Kotrbacek10
WSep 8 · 15:30J. Hanacek1.8371181262P. Kotrbacek1.831171110113WSep 8 · 14:00P. Kotrbacek1.401112113J. Blazek2.7521090WSep 4 · 16:40P. Kotrbacek2.38127712113F. Husek1.531011111092LSep 4 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek1.918890K. Jirousek1.801111113WSep 4 · 14:30F. Husek2.0071111862P. Kotrbacek1.73118511113WSep 4 · 14:00L. Tuma1.57101111922P. Kotrbacek2.25127811113WSep 1 · 16:39P. Kotrbacek1.7311101011123F. Schmidtmayer2.00912126102LSep 1 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek2.2531161132K. Farsky1.57117119113WSep 1 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer1.831411581P. Kotrbacek1.8316711113LSep 1 · 14:00T. Bertho1.61111617113P. Kotrbacek2.207141931
M. Melisek10
WSep 8 · 13:30J. Hanacek1.5710101161M. Melisek2.2512126113WSep 1 · 12:38M. Melisek1.6191211113J. Jnr2.201110871LSep 1 · 12:00M. Melisek2.2011811842M. Vorel1.61511311113LSep 1 · 10:30R. Slunecko1.57911911113M. Melisek2.2511911832WSep 1 · 10:00J. Jnr1.735890M. Melisek2.001111113LAug 30 · 16:33J. Hanacek1.53891211113M. Melisek2.38111110622WAug 30 · 15:30M. Melisek2.75611126143P. Abraham1.401181011122LAug 30 · 14:30M. Melisek2.50117761A. Dvoracek1.5021111113LAug 30 · 13:30M. Melisek2.20612761J. Hanacek1.61111011113WAug 28 · 12:54M. Vorel1.5311581282M. Melisek2.384111110113
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