TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094760
Played Sep 8Finished
Josef Hanacek
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111178111210611
Petr Kotrbacek
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Kotrbacek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJosef Hanacek above · Petr Kotrbacek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 94 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Petr Kotrbacek at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Josef Hanacek 1–2 Petr Kotrbacek Josef Hanacek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:15What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kotrbacek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hanacek 1362 vs Kotrbacek 1491
Kotrbacek
Correct
both rated, 129 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hanacek 20% vs Kotrbacek 80%
Kotrbacek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hanacek 20% vs Kotrbacek 70%
Kotrbacek
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hanacek -2 · Kotrbacek +3
Kotrbacek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kotrbacek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kotrbacek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHanacek 1.83 / Kotrbacek 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kotrbacek)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13094760
Hanacek1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Kotrbacek1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeHanacek1wins
AwayKotrbacek2wins
2 of 3 to a deciderKotrbacek leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hanacek1Kotrbacek2n = 3Kotrbacek took 2 of 3
S2Hanacek2Kotrbacek1n = 3Hanacek took 2 of 3
S3Hanacek1Kotrbacek2n = 3Kotrbacek took 2 of 3
S4Hanacek1Kotrbacek2n = 3Kotrbacek took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricHanacekKotrbacekH − KBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match45.048.3−3.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHanacekKotrbacekBasisWin rate · lifetime226 / 439 vs 128 / 26951.5%47.6%226 / 439 vs 128 / 269Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KotrbacekHanacek 1.83/Kotrbacek 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kotrbacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kotrbacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WMay 17 · 08:00J. Hanacek—118913113P. Kotrbacek—911111182
LFeb 7 · 20:00J. Hanacek—8119101P. Kotrbacek—11911123
LJan 24 · 20:45J. Hanacek—91113662P. Kotrbacek—1181111113
J. Hanacek10
LSep 8 · 14:30J. Hanacek1.50712771J. Blazek2.50111011113LSep 8 · 13:30J. Hanacek1.5710101161M. Melisek2.2512126113WSep 5 · 16:29J. Hanacek4.00116117113L. Hendrych1.2251141152LSep 5 · 16:00F. Kubos1.801111103J. Hanacek1.915870LSep 5 · 13:30L. Hendrych1.251111113J. Hanacek3.759690LSep 3 · 12:23J. Hanacek2.201011110J. Marhol1.611213133LSep 3 · 11:45O. Plyska1.67117111113J. Hanacek2.1041181192LSep 3 · 10:45M. Vana1.501112114113J. Hanacek2.5091471192WSep 3 · 09:15J. Marhol1.57121211982J. Hanacek2.251014711113LSep 2 · 09:03T. Bertho1.61117139113J. Hanacek2.20911111162
P. Kotrbacek10
WSep 8 · 15:00P. Kotrbacek1.4411129113M. Melisek2.637101151WSep 8 · 14:00P. Kotrbacek1.401112113J. Blazek2.7521090WSep 4 · 16:40P. Kotrbacek2.38127712113F. Husek1.531011111092LSep 4 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek1.918890K. Jirousek1.801111113WSep 4 · 14:30F. Husek2.0071111862P. Kotrbacek1.73118511113WSep 4 · 14:00L. Tuma1.57101111922P. Kotrbacek2.25127811113WSep 1 · 16:39P. Kotrbacek1.7311101011123F. Schmidtmayer2.00912126102LSep 1 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek2.2531161132K. Farsky1.57117119113WSep 1 · 14:30F. Schmidtmayer1.831411581P. Kotrbacek1.8316711113LSep 1 · 14:00T. Bertho1.61111617113P. Kotrbacek2.207141931
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